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Mafia! One Year Anniversary Edition!

Last posted Jul 15, 2012 at 03:51PM EDT. Added Jun 22, 2012 at 10:31PM EDT
307 conversations with 28 participants

Blue Screen (of Death) wrote:

Son. Of. A. Bitch

You should start running pal.

Jun 27, 2012 at 10:53PM EDT

Hmm, well that backfired for me. But we got a mafia, so I’m not complaining. Wouldn’t cheer too quickly though, we still have 6 left. Killing them all won’t be as easy as previous games, especially with one of the sheriffs already dead.

But time to analyze. As the last voting round was pretty messy and confusing surrounding the voters for Blue Screen and Slappy, we’ll only use them for now. The rest took the sideline option, save for now, but can be risky later.

  • BSoD: 5 (Ann, RPP, Bruelock, Slappy, Chowzburgerz)
  • Slappy: 4 (Falcon, Seal, Alejandro, Natsuru)

Normally I would create scenarios based on where the mafia votes could’ve gone to as we tried to create a tie. Aiming for the facts. But as mafia votes actually count now, we’ll go with the following scenarios:

  • We were lucky. Mafia or no mafia dead, fact remains that a lot of votes in this day phase were just random. If this is the case, the Slappy voters might’ve tried to saved BSoD’s ass but failed. Which can mean there are one or multiple mafia amongst the Slappy voters. But keeping the luck factor intact, there could be no mafia involved for all we know.
  • There was a sheriff involved. Although there is one dead, they were still able to both scan a target and we can assume the remaining one knows both the outcomes. Which then means one or two (if an innocent outcome was contacted) of the 5 voters for BSoD knew he was mafia and tried to get attention towards him, with succes.
  • The mafia took a gamble. With 7 mafia in total, one gone doesn’t mean an endgame already. So they chose to sacrifice one of themselves directly at the beginning. The people who voted BSoD surely won’t seem suspicious now. But was this lucky or a mafia plan all along? The only two I think would be willing to do this are Bob and BSoD, and one of them is mafia. Some of his voters surely lacked reasons to vote for him, but this could be part of the plan all along. But then again, same with the people who voted Slappy, they might’ve tried to save BSoD without drawing attention.
  • Both of them are mafia. As it was pretty certain that either Slappy or BSoD would die, the mafia caused as much confusion as possible surrounding the two. Sacrificing one to keep the other safe from getting attention, while attempting to get attention towards/away from their voters as well.
Last edited Jun 27, 2012 at 11:10PM EDT
Jun 27, 2012 at 11:06PM EDT
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Now would be the time to analyze what BSoD has posted in the past. Since BSoD voted on Ann, I would think he’s in the clear. Unless the mafia is planning some grand scheme (which isn’t likely).

I am naturally suspicious of Random and Verbose, because as the most experienced, I’m surprised they haven’t been picked off yet. Also, they would be the ones to know how to sway people the most, I would think.


Since I’m not exactly in the best position myself, I’m going to explain my actions. I originally voted for Aperture because I knew about his tendency to frequently delete his posts, and I feared that could be used as a liability or an advantage if he could be mafia.

However, I later discovered he quit and deactivated his account (again). So I switched to Slappy, because I thought Mr. J might have been tipping us off with the shark. However, I later doubted that, so I switched to Ann, because I fell for BSoD’s logic that the Mafia are the first to accuse.

The “create a tie” thing was mainly because Slappy was in the lead, and I was worried that having voted for him, that would make me a prime suspect.

Last edited Jun 27, 2012 at 11:19PM EDT
Jun 27, 2012 at 11:13PM EDT
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I wonder what caused the sudden last minute vote changes?
Regarding the players that make long statements.
I don’t get swayed by it.
I usually try to read it and find contradictions and compare them to longer statements.
I allow my irrational side to accuse someone.
Then let my rational side review everything that’s going on.

Last edited Jun 27, 2012 at 11:26PM EDT
Jun 27, 2012 at 11:20PM EDT
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GIANTDAD wrote:

You should start running pal.

You mean run for the life he no longer has?

Because if he can run with any bit of speed while dead, I’m not going to chase him. I’m running the other way.


Well, I’ll let the mafia in on my thinking (OR IS IT PART OF MY TRAP):

Unless they’re really thinking this through with the new rules in mind and how people are predicting the mafia to use those rules, then I would think that (like I hinted at before) that the mafia would take advantage of the ability to have their votes count. Especially veteran players.

Or more directly, unless they’re well-coordinated the mafia would be quick to vote and regular in voting. They can team up and take out villagers and other non-mafioso pretty quickly if one well-respected player who was actually mafia had decent logic and the rest of them followed that logic.

I bring that up to do a couple of things:

  • To show you what I’m thinking. Muffins and Random struck me as odd, because I wouldn’t think they’d be so quick to vote normally. Muffins moreso than Random, because he changed his vote. There’s really no reason to change your vote. If you just want to kill off someone to get things going and perhaps get someone hot under the collar, then great. But changing the vote based on faulty logic is always sure to raise eyebrows.

Especially when we could expect the mafia to be more active in voting.
 

  • To see if I can change their plans mid-game. I have no idea what the mafia is doing or what they’re thinking, so I would think that laying out some potential plans for everyone to keep in mind at least gives villagers an idea of what they mafia might have been trying to do in the first round.

Since few of us were here during the very first mafia game, this format is new to basically everyone. We don’t know how to play this way. I’ve always thought that having more information and options is better than having a bunch of unknowns, so until we have a plan, I say let’s get what we’re thinking out there.


Hm. You’re so getting voted for next round, Muffins. I’m not sure I like Random’s language, but my suspicion is just like your “suspicion,” Muffins. I don’t like Random’s mind potentially being a threat, and I doubt we’re painting him into a corner if he was mafia. We’d only get him by chance if he’s mafia.

But anyway, you’re plenty suspicious as is. I’ve got enough from your posts to think you’re mafia. So you may as well kill me now. Otherwise, you’re going to have me bringing up all of my evidence come Day Phase (for you and those others. If you don’t kill me now, then you’re actually jeapordizing…say, 3 or 4 mafia.) You’ll sacrifice one or two, but 3 or 4 in a row would be backbreaking.

So yeah. There’s your initiative. Kill me now, and expose yourself, Muffins. But you’ll help save the rest of the mafia, because I haven’t given that information (and I can’t once I’m dead.) But if you leave me alive, I’ll bring out all of the evidence, and take out a few more of you as well.
 
lolz

Last edited Jun 27, 2012 at 11:35PM EDT
Jun 27, 2012 at 11:25PM EDT
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Ann Hiro wrote:

I wonder what caused the sudden last minute vote changes?
Regarding the players that make long statements.
I don’t get swayed by it.
I usually try to read it and find contradictions and compare them to longer statements.
I allow my irrational side to accuse someone.
Then let my rational side review everything that’s going on.

Irrational, rational, all a bunch of balony. Your suspicions completely lacked logic and you know it, you’re only trying to look smart now because you were proven correct by luck alone. If it actually was part of a plan, I’m sure a special role was involved. As for the sudden vote changes:

  • Slappy just tried to save his own scales by changing votes to the person with the most votes besides him. A natural stategy when facing death, but could be a last minute plan for all we know.
  • Chowz I still fail to see why. Either he’s just showing clear signs of being inexperienced, or him and Slappy are both doctors/mafia who wanted to save each other. If they’re both doctors, this was the most natural thing to do. If they’re both mafia, it was most likely planned, possibly even by BSoD. But in both cases where it wasn’t just chowz being a beginner, we have to assume they share the same role. That or Slappy is a sheriff and knew chowz wasn’t mafia, so he decided to contact him at the last moment to save himself.
  • Counting in Natsuru’s pretty late vote: His vote was either random, went with the majority to make up for the lack of inactivity (Slappy still had the most votes back then), or tried to save BSoD.

@Verbose

I’m commonly the person who tries to start votes rolling in the first day phase. I’m getting impatient pretty quickly in the first day phase as people are always way too cautious of drawing attention towards themselves. So I just vote to remove that fear from others and actually start the game. You can read through previous mafia games, this isn’t the first time I’ve done this.

But if you still decide to strike me as odd, then so be it. It’s mafia, nobody’s innocent until proven otherwise.

Last edited Jun 27, 2012 at 11:49PM EDT
Jun 27, 2012 at 11:31PM EDT
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Muffins wrote:

Now would be the time to analyze what BSoD has posted in the past. Since BSoD voted on Ann, I would think he’s in the clear. Unless the mafia is planning some grand scheme (which isn’t likely).

I am naturally suspicious of Random and Verbose, because as the most experienced, I’m surprised they haven’t been picked off yet. Also, they would be the ones to know how to sway people the most, I would think.


Since I’m not exactly in the best position myself, I’m going to explain my actions. I originally voted for Aperture because I knew about his tendency to frequently delete his posts, and I feared that could be used as a liability or an advantage if he could be mafia.

However, I later discovered he quit and deactivated his account (again). So I switched to Slappy, because I thought Mr. J might have been tipping us off with the shark. However, I later doubted that, so I switched to Ann, because I fell for BSoD’s logic that the Mafia are the first to accuse.

The “create a tie” thing was mainly because Slappy was in the lead, and I was worried that having voted for him, that would make me a prime suspect.

I never take in count who’s mafia/who’s dying when writing the stories.

Jun 27, 2012 at 11:49PM EDT
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In all considerations of the past events, I would have to say that I feel suspicious regarding Alejandro, Muffins, and Seal. I know this may merely sound like I am attempting to defend myself since they have all voted for me or expressed what I feel is an interest in my demise. However, I shall attempt to explain my rationale through several statements.

Muffins: I have attempted to explain this before back in the day phase, but the fact that he had attempted to vote off Aperture before me seems that he was trying to pick off one of the (perhaps) less-experienced players. The later swap to BSoD may have been a plot to try to divert attention away from himself after realizing that he may have been in over his head although considering that BSoD was mafia, he may perhaps be innocent.

Alejandro: I’m sorry to sound direct, but just look at the way at which I had been voted for by him. It seems incredibly immature, especially considering his normal behaviour (sorry if I am wrong, I’m being a detective, not a psychoanalysist) and considering how there was currently a tie set up at the time between me chowz, and BSoD, it would seem as if he was attempting to push the votes out of balance. Given my past plays of the game, this would be a tactic that I would attempt to enforce given that I was mafia at the time, as could be seen in Mafia 7: Comic Books Edition, as a means of causing panic.

Seal: You voted for me as to create a tie between me, chowz, and BSoD. That I can understand. However, in accordance to what bob was saying, you may also have been doing this as a means of saving BSoD. Since we now all know that BSoD was mafia, I feel as if there is a possibility that you are mafia as well.

These are the thought processes through which I have come to believe that these three are members of the mafia. While these theories are still rather tentative given that there have only been a few rounds (read: 2), I believe that they can help to giving a few leads to the identities of the mafia members.

P.S. There are still a few other people which I find suspicious, but I shall hold back my accusations as I do not yet have a full case set up against them

P.P.S What MrJ said above is yet another point in my belief of Muffins’ guilt, although it could also have been a way through which to start some votes due to the relatively slow beginning

Last edited Jun 28, 2012 at 12:00AM EDT
Jun 27, 2012 at 11:57PM EDT
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So I’ve been analyzing the data, and thinking of some scenarios, you know, like I usually do. Let’s see here.

There is a lot of consternation that has been caused by some players changing their votes for seemingly trivial reasons. This tells me one of two things:

  • The player legitimately changed their mind
  • The player panicked

Panic-induced vote switching is most likely caused by either the player in question being marked for death or by the player scrambling to save a fellow mafioso. The latter seems to be the more likely option in these cases. However, as it’s been pointed out, a smart mafia would realize that a few of its members can, and frankly should, be sacrificed. This is a tactic that I’ve used myself; casting suspicion on a fellow mafioso, and in so doing, redirecting it away from me. So, I’ll be keeping an eye on Ann Hiro.

Further to this, you’ll notice how both BSOD and Muffins voted for Ann. Again, that’s exactly what I would have done had I been in that situation. So I’m adding Muffins to my watch list. Also notice how Muffins decided to be the first to go after Slappy (at one point) based on clearly flawed logic. Slappy is good at this game, but, let’s face it, doesn’t have quite the same name-brand recognition as Verbose or RandomMan or Bob, so to me he would seem like a logical choice at whom the mafia could begin to point fingers.

Now, as for the old tie tactic, that clearly won’t have the same effect in this game. But, that doesn’t mean that it won’t be used. The mafia may attempt to force Mr J to randomly select a victim in the event of a tie, so I’ll be watching for any activity that seems to shunt votes to less likely candidates.

Honestly, at this stage, it’s difficult to lay down anything concrete. Therefore, I’m going to hold back until the next day phase to see where that leads us – my suspicions of Ann Hiro and Muffins are just that: suspicions.

Jun 28, 2012 at 04:52AM EDT
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I’ve only heard from doctors and sheriff. Act fast, mafia.

Jun 28, 2012 at 05:56AM EDT
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I’m not sure, I find it pretty suspicious that two people decided to switch their votes to the same person roughly 20 minutes apart. Seems more like a joint decision to me. But that’s just speculation.

Of course, as opspe has stated, a good mafia is willing to cut off a broken leg. He himself has proven how far that kind of mentality will take you. If I’m right, and the sudden vote change was a joint decision, what are the chances that they chose to sacrifice BSoD over someone else?

Last edited Jun 28, 2012 at 11:57AM EDT
Jun 28, 2012 at 11:48AM EDT
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Hey I just met you
And this is crazy
The doctors are smart
They just saved Slappy


I’ve been waiting for something to happen to Slappy so I could do this.
The mafia tried to assassinate Slappy The Fish, but the doctors saved him.
Total Player Count: 14 villagers, 2 doctors, 1 sheriff, 6 mafia, 2 deaths, 21 players alive.

Jun 28, 2012 at 08:46PM EDT
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Well… It appears that some folks really want me dead…

I think that this particular circumstance can give more than enough credence to my current theories regarding at least a few of the people that I have taken note on. As such, I shall start off the voting procedure by voting for Muffins since I understand that I shall receive at least some support regarding my decision and also on the basis that he is still a suspicious character in my opinion

Last edited Jun 28, 2012 at 09:25PM EDT
Jun 28, 2012 at 09:24PM EDT
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Muffins.
I’m going on the previous evidence stated, i’m not too much of a strategist.

Last edited Jun 28, 2012 at 09:45PM EDT
Jun 28, 2012 at 09:36PM EDT
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Fridge Logic wrote:

OH GOD I TOTALLY FORGOT ABOUT THIS.

DID I DIE?!

No, but I think you’re going to die soon.

My vote is Fridge Logic.

Jun 28, 2012 at 10:36PM EDT
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Yo Irrational side here!


Douglas
He gives off a feeling of a pawn.
Following the words of others.
Nothing but hitman.
My logic right now is flawed.
needs moar research.

I also have my eyes on:
Bob
Opspe

I also have mixed feelings about
Verbose,and RandomMan

Their experience bothers me.
Nothing to out of the ordinary about there speech.


I swear if someone follows my logic again and votes the same person as I…
Why would you do that?

Jun 29, 2012 at 12:13AM EDT
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Just as a bit of game-play strategy info, a village proven not to be a Mafia is No Use whatsoever to the Mafia. If the Mafia have no way to pin the blame on him they will find it more beneficial just to kill him off as soon as they can.

Tl;DR The Mafia will most likely attempt to double tap Slappy in the near future.

Well, at least that’s how I would think if I was the Mafia.
--

In the meantime, I am voting… um… (still sees no solid leads) uh… give me a bit, I will figure it out in the morning.

Jun 29, 2012 at 02:16AM EDT
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I personally have no solid conviction that anyone is mafia at the moment as I have not really read any of the past mafia game threads as of yet and can’t pin odd behavior, so I’ll probably go with the most suspicious one of those who have voted for Slappy.
While Muffin could very well be mafia, my gut is telling me to vote for either Douglas or Fridge, Douglas being the one I will choose due to his overall loose cannon behavior.
Douglas

Last edited Jun 29, 2012 at 03:54AM EDT
Jun 29, 2012 at 03:46AM EDT
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So, the mafia decided to try and kill Slappy. Why Slappy, though?

There really weren’t many people who wanted Slappy dead. Then again, opspe did turn attention towards him in his last post. But why Slappy? He also mentioned Verbs, RandomMan and I. And opspe himself. Why didn’t the mafia go for any of us? Maybe the mafia wants us to stand out. If I’m right, this kind of plan is actually typical for our more experienced players. I have my suspicions, but I’ll think on them more.

Also, how much longer is left in this phase? I need to throw in my vote at some point.

Jun 29, 2012 at 10:37AM EDT
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Well im kinda lost right now on who has enough evidence leaning towards them so i guess ill just go with the flow and vote douglass.

Jun 29, 2012 at 10:53AM EDT

Shamefully, I am going to go with the current highest vote again, so therefore Douglas.

Jun 29, 2012 at 01:05PM EDT
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Alright, alright, let me get a vote count set up:

Muffins: 3 (Slappy, Douglas, Tim)

Douglas: 7 (Ann, Brue, RPP, Fridge, Maki’s ho (Seal?), chowz, Nats)

Jun 29, 2012 at 01:09PM EDT
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Well, Douglas is a goner by the looks of things.

Jun 29, 2012 at 02:10PM EDT
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Everything I do is going to be suspicious anyways, so I’m voting for myself.

Jun 29, 2012 at 02:49PM EDT
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@Muffins
Come on, there’s no need to be an hero. Is that even allowed in this game?

Jun 29, 2012 at 02:58PM EDT
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OH COME ON.
If you look at the current evidence, muffins is a batter target to go after.
Even though I’m a loose cannon, time after time I have been innocent again and again.
Now I mean this is somewhat mafia behavior, I throw more suspicion on Ann.
He was the one who first voted me even though there is substantial evidence against muffins.

Last edited Jun 29, 2012 at 03:16PM EDT
Jun 29, 2012 at 03:11PM EDT
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Captain Douglas J Falcon wrote:

OH COME ON.
If you look at the current evidence, muffins is a batter target to go after.
Even though I’m a loose cannon, time after time I have been innocent again and again.
Now I mean this is somewhat mafia behavior, I throw more suspicion on Ann.
He was the one who first voted me even though there is substantial evidence against muffins.

I change my vote to Ann.

Jun 29, 2012 at 03:21PM EDT
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Okay. So I’ve been conflicted on whether or not to vote Douglas or Muffins, since they seem to be the two bandwagon votes. I decided I should throw my opinion out there. Here’s how I see it; first off, yes, I will agree that Muffins may be more suspicious. But there may be an underlying cause for this. Muffins fully acknowledges rising amounts of accusations against him, even stating that everything he does will be suspicious, which is why he is even voting himself as Mafia. I do have a possible explanation about why that raises my suspicions towards Douglas, though.

Douglas and Muffins may in fact both be Mafia. This might be why Muffins is an heroing himself. He could be trying to garner attention to himself for the sake of saving Douglas, who to my knowledge is more experienced in the Mafia game. By saving Douglas, he’ll be saving a more valuable Mafioso than himself.

Does that make sense to anyone else?

It does to me, so I’ll take an educated guess and vote Douglas.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Muffins: 3 (Slappy, Tim, Muffins)
Douglas: 8 (Ann, Brue, RPP, Seal, chowz, Nats, 404, Alejandro)
ANN: 2 (Douglas, Fridge)

Last edited Jun 29, 2012 at 03:45PM EDT
Jun 29, 2012 at 03:40PM EDT
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Alejandro wrote:

Okay. So I’ve been conflicted on whether or not to vote Douglas or Muffins, since they seem to be the two bandwagon votes. I decided I should throw my opinion out there. Here’s how I see it; first off, yes, I will agree that Muffins may be more suspicious. But there may be an underlying cause for this. Muffins fully acknowledges rising amounts of accusations against him, even stating that everything he does will be suspicious, which is why he is even voting himself as Mafia. I do have a possible explanation about why that raises my suspicions towards Douglas, though.

Douglas and Muffins may in fact both be Mafia. This might be why Muffins is an heroing himself. He could be trying to garner attention to himself for the sake of saving Douglas, who to my knowledge is more experienced in the Mafia game. By saving Douglas, he’ll be saving a more valuable Mafioso than himself.

Does that make sense to anyone else?

It does to me, so I’ll take an educated guess and vote Douglas.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Muffins: 3 (Slappy, Tim, Muffins)
Douglas: 8 (Ann, Brue, RPP, Seal, chowz, Nats, 404, Alejandro)
ANN: 2 (Douglas, Fridge)

Silly man, I’m not a mafia. I will gladly an hero myself if you and another one switch their vote to ann.

Jun 29, 2012 at 03:57PM EDT
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Captain Douglas J Falcon wrote:

Silly man, I’m not a mafia. I will gladly an hero myself if you and another one switch their vote to ann.

You would still die if that happened. 8-2+1=7 and 2+2=4.

Jun 29, 2012 at 04:13PM EDT
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RocketPropelledPanda wrote:

You would still die if that happened. 8-2+1=7 and 2+2=4.

An hero.
in other words, make all the votes pointless.

Jun 29, 2012 at 04:24PM EDT
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I wonder why people end up picking the same person I choose?

Jun 29, 2012 at 04:40PM EDT
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Ann Hiro wrote:

I wonder why people end up picking the same person I choose?

The bandwagon is strong in this one

Jun 29, 2012 at 05:40PM EDT
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Captain Douglas J Falcon wrote:

An hero.
in other words, make all the votes pointless.

Sorry, I presumed you just were using an hero as a way to say vote for yourself. However you suggesting that trade-off just makes you seem like mafia more than anything now.

Jun 29, 2012 at 08:33PM EDT
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10 hours.
And yes, I mean it this time.

Jun 29, 2012 at 10:02PM EDT
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Mister J wrote:

10 hours.
And yes, I mean it this time.

Just end it now.
it`s obvious that i`m going to die. I accept death.

Jun 29, 2012 at 10:07PM EDT
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If you really aren’t mafia, try convincing everyone voting for you that they should change their votes. PM’s or whatever, you still have some time left.

Jun 30, 2012 at 03:57AM EDT
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So, I don’t think I need to state again that the one voted off is Captain Douglas J Falcon.


He was a villager.

Jun 30, 2012 at 09:16AM EDT
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Skeletor-sm

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