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Élection présidentielle française

Last posted May 08, 2017 at 03:42AM EDT. Added Apr 20, 2017 at 06:32PM EDT
56 posts from 24 users

mikey wants milk wrote:

>Le Pen loses
>France continues having islamic terrorist attacks
>quality of life for median income french person continues going down
>France is a shining example of why America must vote for conservative candidates

Go back to /pol/.

Looking back at this election, you could say Macron had luck on his side through the whole run. First the right fell with Fillon, then the left with Hamon, Melanchon rises too late to go to round 2, and finally Marine Le Pen destroys her chances of potentially winning with her awful presentation at the debate.

In a normal election, it's clear that Macron would not have made the cut, it probably would have been Fillon 100%, with probably Le Pen and Melanchon against him. However, all these turns of events helped Macron take the place of president.

That luck is gonna be reflected during the legislatives. He won because he was against Le Pen and not really for his project. I personally like the man, but even I can recognize he won as a default choice, not because he could change something. If anything, he is gonna be a meatshield for 5 to 10 (if he gets re-elected somehow) years until the new election where either the normal parties will take back their places, or an extreme (either Melanchon or Le Pen) will take the place of president.

So, all in all, while Macron wins the 1st and 2nd round, it is highly unlikely that he will win the 3rd one (legislatives), UNLESS luck is on his side again or he actually manages to have a majority of the government be with him.

Guess what I'm waiting for now is to see if Macron backs his luck with actual skill. He already showed some, let's hope for him that he actually manages to make his changes instead of facing a brick wall like Chirac back 2002, who also won against the FN back in the day and had cohabit with the opposition.

Luggy wrote:

Macron wins, unsurprisingly. Winning the legislatives though is gonna be way harder. If he is forced to cohabit with someone that isn't from his movement (say someone from the right, left, etc…), he basically won't be able to do shit because the government will be against him.

Macron president, yes, but will he be able to actually do something ? That's another problem that will be answered in a month.

If he cant do anything, or worse actively makes the french's problems increase, I fear the FN will be in majority by 2022.

Last edited May 07, 2017 at 05:12PM EDT

Greyblades wrote:

If he cant do anything, or worse actively makes the french's problems increase, I fear the FN will be in majority by 2022.

Like I said, he most likely won't be able to do a thing. Will this make the FN win in 2022 ? That to me is also unlikely. If anything, I could see a comeback from the right if they get another good candidate that isn't Fillon, or Melanchon.

The right was afterall about to win this election if it wasn't for the whole controversy Fillon received. If they get a candidate that manages to bring the party together, then the right might be able to take 2022. However, that is only on paper, we don't know if they can repair the mistakes they made this election.

Melanchon on the other hand did nothing wrong in this election, and he was getting points near the end, pretty much being tied with Fillon. If he manages to not act like an ass like he did after he lost, then he could win 2022 if he does just as well as this election. A Melanchon VS Le Pen scenario would easily give him the victory. Is it good though ? Meh, it's up for people to decide.

So I guess it's a wait and see, but don't expect Macron to do a lot, sadly.

mikey wants milk wrote:

>Le Pen loses
>France continues having islamic terrorist attacks
>quality of life for median income french person continues going down
>France is a shining example of why America must vote for conservative candidates

Yes. Because things are going just swimmingly in America right now.

Also, conservatives are not some kind of anti terrorist scarecrow. You can have the most conservative government imaginable, and yet still suffer frequent terrorist attacks.

Last edited May 07, 2017 at 06:17PM EDT

That luck is gonna be reflected during the legislatives. He won because he was against Le Pen and not really for his project.

Source

It's clearly visible, but even taking away all the against-votes, Macron still won (albeit less dominantly). Macron would still be left with more than Le Pen's votes if you take that 43% away, even without also removing Le Pen's 22%.

Last edited May 08, 2017 at 03:55AM EDT

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