Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet - Images

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Medlock Wins

James Medlock @jdcmedlock : I can finally say it: I settled the bet early with @balajis! Took some time to work out the details but he proceeded in good faith and you can see the receipt of funds on chain in the next tweet. $500k to me (so I get 30% post tax as planned) and 500k to @GiveDirectly 7:34 PM . May 2, 2023 381.1K Views 401 Retweets 285 Quotes 3,767 Likes 108 Bookmarks
James Medlock @jdcmedlock : I can finally say it: I settled the bet early with @balajis! Took some time to work out the details but he proceeded in good faith and you can see the receipt of funds on chain in the next tweet. $500k to me (so I get 30% post tax as planned) and 500k to @GiveDirectly 7:34 PM . May 2, 2023 381.1K Views 401 Retweets 285 Quotes 3,767 Likes 108 Bookmarks

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
medlock

Printing Is Coming

Balaji @balajis THE PRINTING IS COMING It's on you, the citizen journalist. You need to make people aware. They were printing "only" $25B on March 12. Then $2T on March 16. Now it's $18T on March 21. Eventually it will be / 21M. Then you may have nothing. Unless you have Bitcoin. : THE STEALTH DEVALUATION I'm going to post these kinds of polls routinely, because things are moving extremely fast. When I put up the #Bitsignal[1] many people were denying any crisis existed. Now it is clear that a digital fire is burning, as the Federal Reserve is printing money to the tune of trillions to send to both domestic banks (via BTFP) [2,3,4] and foreign banks (via swaplines) [5,6] while publicly reassuring people that the banking system is still resilient[7]...something you'd never have to do if it really was. But in reality, they're doing a stealth devaluation of the dollar. As Dalio predicted they would, to pay unpayable debts- but at warp speed. They didn't have strategic surprise, but they did have tactical surprise. They're doing it under fog of war, in the chaos of bank runs. But whether done intentionally or not, acknowledged or not, the dollar holder is soon to become the bagholder.
Balaji @balajis THE PRINTING IS COMING It's on you, the citizen journalist. You need to make people aware. They were printing "only" $25B on March 12. Then $2T on March 16. Now it's $18T on March 21. Eventually it will be / 21M. Then you may have nothing. Unless you have Bitcoin. : THE STEALTH DEVALUATION I'm going to post these kinds of polls routinely, because things are moving extremely fast. When I put up the #Bitsignal[1] many people were denying any crisis existed. Now it is clear that a digital fire is burning, as the Federal Reserve is printing money to the tune of trillions to send to both domestic banks (via BTFP) [2,3,4] and foreign banks (via swaplines) [5,6] while publicly reassuring people that the banking system is still resilient[7]...something you'd never have to do if it really was. But in reality, they're doing a stealth devaluation of the dollar. As Dalio predicted they would, to pay unpayable debts- but at warp speed. They didn't have strategic surprise, but they did have tactical surprise. They're doing it under fog of war, in the chaos of bank runs. But whether done intentionally or not, acknowledged or not, the dollar holder is soon to become the bagholder.

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

He Pays For Twitter

Balaji @balajis Just as in 2008, the bankers lied. This time, the central bankers, the banks, and the bank regulators have lied to all dollar holders and depositors. This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals. They knew this through all of last year, and communicated it internally in their coded language. It's obvious from the graphs (see below). The central banks, the banks, and the banking regulators all knew a huge crash was coming-the phrase is "unrealized losses" [1,2,3,4,5]. But they never notified you, the depositor. Instead the regulators allowed banks to hide their literal insolvency in footnotes[6], until one guy figured it out[7]. : It's Uncle Sam Bankman Fried. Just like SBF used your deposits to buy shitcoins, using accounting tricks to fool himself and others into using the money, so too did the banks. They all used the deposits to buy the ultimate shitcoin: long-dated US Treasuries. And they all got rekt at the same time, in the same way, because they bought the same asset from the same vendor who devalued it at the same time: the Fed. Specifically, as NYT admitted, banks "binged" on enormous amounts of Treasuries and other long-term bonds in 2021 when the flood of printed
Balaji @balajis Just as in 2008, the bankers lied. This time, the central bankers, the banks, and the bank regulators have lied to all dollar holders and depositors. This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals. They knew this through all of last year, and communicated it internally in their coded language. It's obvious from the graphs (see below). The central banks, the banks, and the banking regulators all knew a huge crash was coming-the phrase is "unrealized losses" [1,2,3,4,5]. But they never notified you, the depositor. Instead the regulators allowed banks to hide their literal insolvency in footnotes[6], until one guy figured it out[7]. : It's Uncle Sam Bankman Fried. Just like SBF used your deposits to buy shitcoins, using accounting tricks to fool himself and others into using the money, so too did the banks. They all used the deposits to buy the ultimate shitcoin: long-dated US Treasuries. And they all got rekt at the same time, in the same way, because they bought the same asset from the same vendor who devalued it at the same time: the Fed. Specifically, as NYT admitted, banks "binged" on enormous amounts of Treasuries and other long-term bonds in 2021 when the flood of printed

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

The Bet

Balaji @balajis I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. : This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days. All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation. If someone knows how to do this with a smart contract, we can do it on chain, so I can send USDC. If you won't do that, name a custodian. #BitSignal B
Balaji @balajis I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. : This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days. All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation. If someone knows how to do this with a smart contract, we can do it on chain, so I can send USDC. If you won't do that, name a custodian. #BitSignal B

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Dave Tory On Subject

Dave Troy @davetroy Yeah. This has been the plan all along. And Putin and Xi are aligned with this plan. Demetri Kofinas @kofinas 6h When @balajis says he is "ideologically driven," he's not lying. He and his comrades have an explicit political agenda to replace the Dollar and bring about a new world order run by a plutocratic elite of free agents who remain removed from the obligations of citizenship & place.... twitter.com/balajis/status... Show more : 6) I am sadly not alone in this loss of faith in US banking. Moody's has downgraded the US banking system as a whole [7], many Indians have you recognize the distinction between rep been forced to move funds from collapsing US banks to India's GIFT d causing it! City banking system[8], and - in a development that should be worrying for the world - Chinese banks are soaring as Western banks are failing.[9] If the USD fails, the free world needs BTC as the reserve currency, not RMB. 5) To allay any question about my motivations, I publicly commit to never selling any Bitcoin for USD unless legally compelled to do so. While I still respect many individual Americans, I no longer have faith in the US currency or banking system. 7) Finally, after ten years of being in the public eye, with tens of u...with zero personal animus, I'm going to ord on something. And this is also address thousands of tweets, 50+ hours of podcasts, and hundreds of pages of ind to a lesser extent @SchreckReports, bcwriting things that require correction. there are enough people with context on me to know that I am a trader, I rarely price, and I do not do John McAfee-like stunts. I am an ideologically driven person who believes in Bitcoin & everyone who knows me can testify to this. 5:51 PM Mar 21, 2023 7,057 Views IN SUMMARY I did not propose the bet but only accepted it. I have absolutely zero profit motivation. perbitcoinization bet is a Simon-Erlich sty The hyperbitcoinization bet is a Simon-Erlich-style public interest bet. ettling an ideological matter. I did not prop ted it, I have absolutely zero profit motivat raised the alarm on printing as I did on COVID, because it's important. for USD unless legally compelled to do so, I am never selling Bitcoin for USD unless legally compelled to do so. until the US dollar is no longer the reserve And I am holding Bitcoin until the US dollar is no longer the reserve n unless legally compelled to do otherwise I'm already being proven right, as the printing is reportedly $18T. currency of the world, again unless legally compelled to do otherwise. I cannot give a more strongly worded statement. 43 Retweets 3 Quotes 79 Likes
Dave Troy @davetroy Yeah. This has been the plan all along. And Putin and Xi are aligned with this plan. Demetri Kofinas @kofinas 6h When @balajis says he is "ideologically driven," he's not lying. He and his comrades have an explicit political agenda to replace the Dollar and bring about a new world order run by a plutocratic elite of free agents who remain removed from the obligations of citizenship & place.... twitter.com/balajis/status... Show more : 6) I am sadly not alone in this loss of faith in US banking. Moody's has downgraded the US banking system as a whole [7], many Indians have you recognize the distinction between rep been forced to move funds from collapsing US banks to India's GIFT d causing it! City banking system[8], and - in a development that should be worrying for the world - Chinese banks are soaring as Western banks are failing.[9] If the USD fails, the free world needs BTC as the reserve currency, not RMB. 5) To allay any question about my motivations, I publicly commit to never selling any Bitcoin for USD unless legally compelled to do so. While I still respect many individual Americans, I no longer have faith in the US currency or banking system. 7) Finally, after ten years of being in the public eye, with tens of u...with zero personal animus, I'm going to ord on something. And this is also address thousands of tweets, 50+ hours of podcasts, and hundreds of pages of ind to a lesser extent @SchreckReports, bcwriting things that require correction. there are enough people with context on me to know that I am a trader, I rarely price, and I do not do John McAfee-like stunts. I am an ideologically driven person who believes in Bitcoin & everyone who knows me can testify to this. 5:51 PM Mar 21, 2023 7,057 Views IN SUMMARY I did not propose the bet but only accepted it. I have absolutely zero profit motivation. perbitcoinization bet is a Simon-Erlich sty The hyperbitcoinization bet is a Simon-Erlich-style public interest bet. ettling an ideological matter. I did not prop ted it, I have absolutely zero profit motivat raised the alarm on printing as I did on COVID, because it's important. for USD unless legally compelled to do so, I am never selling Bitcoin for USD unless legally compelled to do so. until the US dollar is no longer the reserve And I am holding Bitcoin until the US dollar is no longer the reserve n unless legally compelled to do otherwise I'm already being proven right, as the printing is reportedly $18T. currency of the world, again unless legally compelled to do otherwise. I cannot give a more strongly worded statement. 43 Retweets 3 Quotes 79 Likes

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
bitcoin dollar inflation hyperinflation

Anti Balaji

Demetri Kofinas @kofinas When @balajis says he is "ideologically driven," he's not lying. He and his comrades have an explicit political agenda to replace the Dollar and bring about a new world order run by a plutocratic elite of free agents who remain removed from the obligations of citizenship & place. As ridiculous as this may sound to some people, it needs to be taken seriously and the deeper motivations and causes behind it need to be understood.
Demetri Kofinas @kofinas When @balajis says he is "ideologically driven," he's not lying. He and his comrades have an explicit political agenda to replace the Dollar and bring about a new world order run by a plutocratic elite of free agents who remain removed from the obligations of citizenship & place. As ridiculous as this may sound to some people, it needs to be taken seriously and the deeper motivations and causes behind it need to be understood.

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
bitcoin dollar inflation hyperinflation

FDA Commissioner

Dave Troy @davetroy. 2h This is correct. Srinavasan has been looking to overthrow the government in favor of Bitcoin and urbit-type schemes for a very long time. And Trump wanted to make him FDA commissioner. Eric Jorgenson @EricJorgenson - 22h I've been reading, listening, and obsessively organizing @balajis' work for the past 3 years. Anyone who says he'd do this just to "pump his bags" doesn't know a thing. Show this thread 1 34 92 ₁8,710 ←]
Dave Troy @davetroy. 2h This is correct. Srinavasan has been looking to overthrow the government in favor of Bitcoin and urbit-type schemes for a very long time. And Trump wanted to make him FDA commissioner. Eric Jorgenson @EricJorgenson - 22h I've been reading, listening, and obsessively organizing @balajis' work for the past 3 years. Anyone who says he'd do this just to "pump his bags" doesn't know a thing. Show this thread 1 34 92 ₁8,710 ←]

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
bitcoin dollar inflation hyperinflation

Astonishingly Evil

Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory. Mar 19 Replying to @Epsilon Theory Bitcoin bros encouraging bank runs and a global economy shutdown is astonishingly evil and profoundly stupid, even for self-absorbed imbeciles who just discovered that, yes, fractional reserves means banks don't have enough cash to give everyone their deposits back immediately. 1,518 215.7K ↑ 212 260
Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory. Mar 19 Replying to @Epsilon Theory Bitcoin bros encouraging bank runs and a global economy shutdown is astonishingly evil and profoundly stupid, even for self-absorbed imbeciles who just discovered that, yes, fractional reserves means banks don't have enough cash to give everyone their deposits back immediately. 1,518 215.7K ↑ 212 260

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
bitcoin dollar inflation hyperinflation

Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven

Balaji @balajis 15h The "safest asset in the world" was the riskiest asset in the world. Similar to the US banking system itself, which Moody's has downgraded. Bitcoin is the one global safe haven. Moody's warns of more pain for US banks as downgrades sector By Natalie Sherman & Dearbail Jordan & Faarea Masud BBC business reporters 14 March 2023 Peter Hebert @peterjhebert. Mar 19 Feels a bit like end of Usual Suspects when world awakens to fact that the extraordinarily dangerous bubble was not in fact Silicon Valley tech nor crypto...but instead low-interest government bonds 87 182 1,087 ₁274K
Balaji @balajis 15h The "safest asset in the world" was the riskiest asset in the world. Similar to the US banking system itself, which Moody's has downgraded. Bitcoin is the one global safe haven. Moody's warns of more pain for US banks as downgrades sector By Natalie Sherman & Dearbail Jordan & Faarea Masud BBC business reporters 14 March 2023 Peter Hebert @peterjhebert. Mar 19 Feels a bit like end of Usual Suspects when world awakens to fact that the extraordinarily dangerous bubble was not in fact Silicon Valley tech nor crypto...but instead low-interest government bonds 87 182 1,087 ₁274K

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Things Happen Fast

Balaji @balajis This year may be one for the books. The advent of AGI. The devaluation of the dollar. The rise of Bitcoin. The global flippening to the East. Even for someone who was thinking about these trends, the pace of change will feel shockingly, disorientingly fast. It reminds me a bit of the early 1900s. In 1910 you still had nine royals meeting. The old world of princes was still around and seemingly immortal. : But under the surface technology had changed everything. And the 20th century roared into existence a few years later. WELL 13525
Balaji @balajis This year may be one for the books. The advent of AGI. The devaluation of the dollar. The rise of Bitcoin. The global flippening to the East. Even for someone who was thinking about these trends, the pace of change will feel shockingly, disorientingly fast. It reminds me a bit of the early 1900s. In 1910 you still had nine royals meeting. The old world of princes was still around and seemingly immortal. : But under the surface technology had changed everything. And the 20th century roared into existence a few years later. WELL 13525

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Balaji Thinks

McKenna @Crypto_McKenna Balaji thinks: - Most banks are insolvent in US - BTC goes to 1mil in 90 days - Hyperinflation is imminent - Converted 99% of nw to BTC - US civil war happens F------ wild 8:38 AM Mar 18, 2023 1.9M Views 576 Retweets 210 Quotes 5,831 Likes :
McKenna @Crypto_McKenna Balaji thinks: - Most banks are insolvent in US - BTC goes to 1mil in 90 days - Hyperinflation is imminent - Converted 99% of nw to BTC - US civil war happens F------ wild 8:38 AM Mar 18, 2023 1.9M Views 576 Retweets 210 Quotes 5,831 Likes :

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Chilling In Room

Erica Wall Taproot Wizard #2 @ercwl "Bro did you see Credit Suisse is tanking, stock is down despite a $54 billion loan from the Swiss national bank, we're so fkd. Classic duration mismatch. Balaji just bet a random anon $1m that the USD is hyperinflating in 90 days, I'm longing bitcoin on Bybit, PlanB was right" :
Erica Wall Taproot Wizard #2 @ercwl "Bro did you see Credit Suisse is tanking, stock is down despite a $54 billion loan from the Swiss national bank, we're so fkd. Classic duration mismatch. Balaji just bet a random anon $1m that the USD is hyperinflating in 90 days, I'm longing bitcoin on Bybit, PlanB was right" :

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Explain The Bet

Colin Fraser @colin_fraser SO MEDLOCK WAS JUST MAKING A SHITPOST ABOUT A SELF- HEDGING BET BUT BALAJI HAS BEEN DOOMPOSTING ABOUT HYPERINFLATION FOR MONTHS SO HE TOOK HIM UP AT WILDLY UNFAVORABLE TERMS BUT MEDLOCK DIDNT HAVE A BITCOIN ON HAND SO THIS PRO POKER PLAYER CAME IN TO BANKROLL THE BET AND 10 9:28 PM Mar 18, 2023 202.1K Views 99 Retweets 20 Quotes 1,435 Likes ASTROS :
Colin Fraser @colin_fraser SO MEDLOCK WAS JUST MAKING A SHITPOST ABOUT A SELF- HEDGING BET BUT BALAJI HAS BEEN DOOMPOSTING ABOUT HYPERINFLATION FOR MONTHS SO HE TOOK HIM UP AT WILDLY UNFAVORABLE TERMS BUT MEDLOCK DIDNT HAVE A BITCOIN ON HAND SO THIS PRO POKER PLAYER CAME IN TO BANKROLL THE BET AND 10 9:28 PM Mar 18, 2023 202.1K Views 99 Retweets 20 Quotes 1,435 Likes ASTROS :

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Things Happen Fast

The thing is, people are still tuned to an analog world where things get gradually worse rather than all at once. But there isn't much forewarning for a digital event - it's 1 and then it's O. Just like the bank runs, except this is the central bank. There are however two sources of forewarning. First is the chart of the long-term depreciation of USD vs BTC, from less than $1 USD per BTC to $25k USD per BTC. Much of the smart money has been voting against the dollar since the financial crisis. The end is a digital drop off a cliff, almost invisible on the chart - but highly visible in the world. This tweet is the second forewarning. It'll be ignored and mocked by people who still trust the US establishment, even after the last few years. Who can't imagine that the US banks and media could be lying to them to this extent. But they are. Just as they did in 2008, and over the last ten years. The digital devaluation of the dollar is coming and it's going to be intense.
The thing is, people are still tuned to an analog world where things get gradually worse rather than all at once. But there isn't much forewarning for a digital event - it's 1 and then it's O. Just like the bank runs, except this is the central bank. There are however two sources of forewarning. First is the chart of the long-term depreciation of USD vs BTC, from less than $1 USD per BTC to $25k USD per BTC. Much of the smart money has been voting against the dollar since the financial crisis. The end is a digital drop off a cliff, almost invisible on the chart - but highly visible in the world. This tweet is the second forewarning. It'll be ignored and mocked by people who still trust the US establishment, even after the last few years. Who can't imagine that the US banks and media could be lying to them to this extent. But they are. Just as they did in 2008, and over the last ten years. The digital devaluation of the dollar is coming and it's going to be intense.

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Bet Announcement

Balaji @balajis I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. : This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days. All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation. If someone knows how to do this with a smart contract, we can do it on chain, so I can send USDC. If you won't do that, name a custodian. #BitSignal B
Balaji @balajis I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. : This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days. All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation. If someone knows how to do this with a smart contract, we can do it on chain, so I can send USDC. If you won't do that, name a custodian. #BitSignal B

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Medlock Wager

James Medlock @jdcmedlock : I'll bet anyone $1 million dollars that the US does not enter hyperinflation 10:31 PM Mar 16, 2023 7.1M Views 540 Retweets 161 Quotes 7,162 Likes
James Medlock @jdcmedlock : I'll bet anyone $1 million dollars that the US does not enter hyperinflation 10:31 PM Mar 16, 2023 7.1M Views 540 Retweets 161 Quotes 7,162 Likes

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Pushing Back On Criticism

Mike Solana Replying to @Mikelsaac and @dwr i don't recall a lot of tech journalists rushing to balaji's defense when their friends were calling him racist for correctly predicting a global pandemic 1 12 5 118 al 1 @micsolana Mar 3, 2020 rat king Replying to @micsolana and @dwr look, it's easy to spike the ball here ("congrats" to balaji for being right!) @MikeIsaac. Mar 3, 2020 rat king @MikeIsaac imo, the better way to handle this is to be above it, instead of doing the same thing you regularly accuse tech journalists of doing 2 22 17 ılı 1 Replying to @Mikelsaac @micsolana and @dwr i do think balaji is owed something of an acknowledgement (apology?) for being ahead of this ⠀
Mike Solana Replying to @Mikelsaac and @dwr i don't recall a lot of tech journalists rushing to balaji's defense when their friends were calling him racist for correctly predicting a global pandemic 1 12 5 118 al 1 @micsolana Mar 3, 2020 rat king Replying to @micsolana and @dwr look, it's easy to spike the ball here ("congrats" to balaji for being right!) @MikeIsaac. Mar 3, 2020 rat king @MikeIsaac imo, the better way to handle this is to be above it, instead of doing the same thing you regularly accuse tech journalists of doing 2 22 17 ılı 1 Replying to @Mikelsaac @micsolana and @dwr i do think balaji is owed something of an acknowledgement (apology?) for being ahead of this ⠀

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation

Neo Meme

What are you trying to tell me, that I can trade my bitcoin for millions someday? No Neo, I'm trying to tell you that when you're ready... you won't have to.
What are you trying to tell me, that I can trade my bitcoin for millions someday? No Neo, I'm trying to tell you that when you're ready... you won't have to.

Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet
dollar bitcoin inflation hyperinflation