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Balaji @balajis I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. : This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days. All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation. If someone knows how to do this with a smart contract, we can do it on chain, so I can send USDC. If you won't do that, name a custodian. #BitSignal B

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Uploaded by Aidan Walker Mar 21, 2023 at 09:22AM EDT

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Origin Entry: Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet

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James Medlock @jdcmedlock : I can finally say it: I settled the bet early with @balajis! Took some time to work out the details but he proceeded in good faith and you can see the receipt of funds on chain in the next tweet. $500k to me (so I get 30% post tax as planned) and 500k to @GiveDirectly 7:34 PM . May 2, 2023 381.1K Views 401 Retweets 285 Quotes 3,767 Likes 108 Bookmarks
Balaji @balajis THE PRINTING IS COMING It's on you, the citizen journalist. You need to make people aware. They were printing "only" $25B on March 12. Then $2T on March 16. Now it's $18T on March 21. Eventually it will be / 21M. Then you may have nothing. Unless you have Bitcoin. : THE STEALTH DEVALUATION I'm going to post these kinds of polls routinely, because things are moving extremely fast. When I put up the #Bitsignal[1] many people were denying any crisis existed. Now it is clear that a digital fire is burning, as the Federal Reserve is printing money to the tune of trillions to send to both domestic banks (via BTFP) [2,3,4] and foreign banks (via swaplines) [5,6] while publicly reassuring people that the banking system is still resilient[7]...something you'd never have to do if it really was. But in reality, they're doing a stealth devaluation of the dollar. As Dalio predicted they would, to pay unpayable debts- but at warp speed. They didn't have strategic surprise, but they did have tactical surprise. They're doing it under fog of war, in the chaos of bank runs. But whether done intentionally or not, acknowledged or not, the dollar holder is soon to become the bagholder.
Balaji @balajis Just as in 2008, the bankers lied. This time, the central bankers, the banks, and the bank regulators have lied to all dollar holders and depositors. This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals. They knew this through all of last year, and communicated it internally in their coded language. It's obvious from the graphs (see below). The central banks, the banks, and the banking regulators all knew a huge crash was coming-the phrase is "unrealized losses" [1,2,3,4,5]. But they never notified you, the depositor. Instead the regulators allowed banks to hide their literal insolvency in footnotes[6], until one guy figured it out[7]. : It's Uncle Sam Bankman Fried. Just like SBF used your deposits to buy shitcoins, using accounting tricks to fool himself and others into using the money, so too did the banks. They all used the deposits to buy the ultimate shitcoin: long-dated US Treasuries. And they all got rekt at the same time, in the same way, because they bought the same asset from the same vendor who devalued it at the same time: the Fed. Specifically, as NYT admitted, banks "binged" on enormous amounts of Treasuries and other long-term bonds in 2021 when the flood of printed
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Uploaded Mar 21, 2023 at 09:22AM EDT

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Balaji Srinivasan's Bitcoin Bet

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dollar, bitcoin, inflation, hyperinflation

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