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Here's mine

1) Covid will stay and continue to torment us for this year too

2) Omicron is gonna eventually force us into another total worldwide lockdown

3) This year will see the final dying breaths of US global Hegemony

4) The end of US Hegemony will cause huge power vacuums and conflict will become more common in the future

5) Ukraine and Taiwan will stop existing as independant countries do to the expansionist ambitions of their neighbours

6) We may see the "seeds" of a Federal Europe

Thats all from me

Is it alright to comment on previous predictions, and then make your own? This year's resolution is to be more mindful.

1) It might be here for the long-haul. Even if vaccine coverage manages to destroy it in OECD countries (a big if), there'll probably be new variants emerging from and spreading from poorer countries.

There's almost complete radio silence on what's happening in some parts of the world. This pandemic is far from over.

2) Looks like it.

3) I don't think it'll happen this year, unless something dramatic occurs. Empires don't die quickly, and we may see the US slipping in influence little by little in our lifetime. It's already much weaker than it was a few decades ago.

This may even be a good thing for the US. The sooner it realizes it's diminished strength and falls back to what's defensible (all the while investing in it's own infrastructure, education etc…) the more easily it will recuperate it's strength.

4&5) Maybe. We'll see when that happens, the danger of dying Empires is that they still have the strength to throw out a knockout punch. China & Russia aren't doing too hot either.

6) I'm cautious. They're already getting started with talks of common debts and financial measures. They already have PESCO, something considered impossible when the UK was still a member.

There's some conflicts between Poland, Hungary and the West which may complicate the issue.
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My predictions:

1) The total deaths from Covid will hit 1 million in Russia and the US.

2) There will be peace. Otherwise, there will be widespread collapse.

Too many contenders for hegemony have issues which could cause them to collapse.

3) We'll see some kind of popular revolt at some point in a 'major' country (one in the top 20 economies ).

Events like the pandemic and the widespread inequality tend to do that. Will it be a dictatorship falling or a democracy being torn apart? I'm betting on a democracy, the elites has mismanaged many issues. It wouldn't surprise me if Turkey collapsed under Erdogan.

4) Technology will become more like something out of Sci-fi/Cyberpunk.

Expect more interest in the internet as a tool of influence and war, more remote work, more VR and Arcologies. If we're lucky, we might have announcements on advances in fusion, robotics or prosthetics.

5) We'll start to see Science-Fiction/Cyberpunk type social changes.

If Corporations aren't opposed, they'll start becoming Super-Corporations. The rich might start preparing more advanced bunkers to separate themselves from the rest of society, especially if there's a panic due to the collapse of a major country.

6) A return of Industrial Era Issues.

Labour rights, the rich, technological change, the future of capital and the environment. We'll see whether there will be a future of collapse, of popular uprisings, of extreme inequality under a powerful elite, or one of continued democracy.

As for Griff's predictions, I'd personally disagree on points 3, 4, and 5 since usually the more "boring" answer (the current status quo remaining the same) is what prevails. Most political scientists, save for the media pundit minority, will tell you that.

Covid continuing to bite us in the butt this year is very likely and might also be the case in 2023, but I'd say we'd have a comparitively more relaxed position towards the pandemic relative to it's height during the last couple of years. This likely due to a mixture of the vaccine being rolled out, people's overconfidence in their safety having grown accustomed to life under covid and governments reluctance to impose what could be seen as overly strict meassures against the pandemic out of fear of pushback from their respective electorates.

Something we're very likely to see is the ongoing effects of climate change, with worsening symptoms and youths fustration at authorities lack of action, something that unfortunately I see continuing to be the case for the forseable future this decade.

One thing I'd say will definitely happen this year will be yet another scandal involving crunch time and workplace harrasment ocurring in a major videogame publisher, soured by the fact that an anticipated game release turns out either posponed or sucking hard on day one.

Perhaps on a lighter note of sorts that is future related this year is that we''ll get the release of a new piece of technology that we'd stereotypically asociate with being representative of the future and realize to ourselves once we have it in our hands: "wait a minute, this kinda sucks", be underwhelmed by it and move on.

Something good will happen for once …something…maybe

I think assuming that the end of US hegemony is going to give China the keys to the world profoundly misunderstands the situation.

To wit: neoliberalism finances China's ability to eat. It also is responsible for the technological advancement via theft that's keeping the house of cards going. If we're looking at the issues China is seeing is that absent of its close ties to the US they would need to expand or starve similar to imperial Japan. The neoliberal order fails and we either see conventional nation-state warfare return or China's going to have the same populism problems at the same time the CCP is massively discredited.

But don't you worry your pretty little head about US hegemony anyway. OPEC still likes the petrodollar.

The bigger threat continues to be scarcities starting from and disasters stemming from global warming. We're talking fishing school collapses, localized but growing water scarcity, and continued incursion into weakened wild spaces giving us THE NEXT covid. The next terrorist movements are going to be linked to effects of global warming (though they will have the usual facial reasoning)

When do you think the status quo will change? Because the way I see it, I don't think our current status quo is sustainable for much longer. Perhaps it has another year or two to go, but still.

For my 2022 prediction, I think political polarization in the US will continue to worsen, given the way things are going. Contrary to (somewhat) popular belief, it will never escalate to a full-blown civil war, but instead a low-intensity conflict. It won't tear this country to shreds, but it will cause scars in the national psyche.

For new technology, I'm just hope that we make some more good progress on fusion power so it's not constantly 30 years away. We've apparently made some pretty good progress this year so I hope that trend continues….

Cryptoassets will make a lot of people mad

Crypto will start getting more regulated

The imaginary culture war will continue and the elections will be more clones screaming nonsense at eachother while they still get voted in

Games will continue to get filled with nfts and microtransactions

Pandemic will continue because of antivaxxers and pharma companies clinging to the patents so poor countires can’t get them

The Russia-Ukraine war will likely continue with nobody intervening on Ukraine’s side

The queen of England will die

nothing will come of the maxwell trial and the rich pedos will continue to abuse innocents

Online mass media such as YouTube, Twitter, Instagram and other soc med becomes even more corporate-driven, whitewashed and normie-friendly than ever

I can already tell just looking from the ridiculous amounts of clickbaity reaction videos and viral music tracks with over >100 mil views getting shoved into my face every day even though it has nothing to do with what I'm generally searching for

Here's my prediction. y'all ready for this?

-Advice Animals will make a comeback this year, much to our Meme Daddy's delight.
-Chris Pratt will officially replace Charles Martinet as the voice of Mario
-A CD-i character will also make a comeback like Morshu did in 2020.
-God will descend from the heavens and claim that every bad thing that happened these few years was "just a prank, bro, see, the camera's right there" while pointing at the sun.
-A meteor will approach the earth, sending everyone into a panic, but then it will destroy itself when it enters the atmosphere, just like in the one Simpsons episode.
-Speaking of which, the Simpsons and Spongebob will still be relevant.
-All dogs will still be able to go to heaven.
-I will still be the best person on this site for more than a decade.

And that's all I got.

Brazil is fucked because either Bolsonaro is reelected and continues to be an irresponsible loudmouth, or Lula gets his fifth mandate and we turn into another goddamn Venezuela.

-The midterms will be a bloodbath for the Dems in America as they fumble their party's promises.
Their base prepares a general strike that will do more for their country than any election or disclaimer on Netflix will.

-A Dem politician will be killed by a rightwing conspiracy theorist

-A culture war nothingburger that builds up the next Republican president

-Environmental horror will cause a wave of climate strikes

-We'll go crazy from COVID isolation

I said in December of 2020 that 2020 was crazy, 2021 will be insane. I was right. 2022 will be one of the most dangerous years since the collapse of the USSR.
My predictions and my random probability of it happening:

-Ukraine get's invaded = 80%. It will be either a rapid blitzkrieg of an invasion before it's over, or it becomes a prolonged fight with massive casualties on either side. The Biden administration would hesitate to get Americans involved if t he war becomes prolonged and particularly bloody, because it's mid-term elections. The 20% that it won't happen is if Putin calculates that the war will be too prolonged and bloody, and if that is the case it would be viewed politically disastrous. If it does get invaded, regardless of it's prolongment, Eastern Ukraine will inevitably be annexed. A Russian defeat would mean political end for Putin, a Russian stalemate that is resolved would be the least acceptable position for Putin to have.

-Chinese invasion of Taiwan = 60%-80%. Last year marked the 100 years of the CCP. This year is the 20th Party Congress which is scheduled for October. The Party Congress, which happens every 5 years, is sort of like our election, just without the election. It is a formal approval of the membership of the Central Committee, which are the biggest decision makers in the country. This is done to rotate central party members in and out to prevent cults of personalities, and leadership. Xi ended the policy of term limits in 2018, and since he's served the 10 years, he will be the first to enter a third term, which marks him, effectively, an Emperor. But there is a lot of internal factions between the different party members who may not like this. A successful invasion of Taiwan would give him the throne, guaranteed.

-Iran declares that it has nuclear weapons = 70%. This will trigger a massive crisis in the ME, the Saudis will be the next to declare they have nuclear weapons (they already do, it's just not in Saudi Arabia, it's in Pakistan, waiting for such an occasion). This will further exacerbate serious problems in the ME:

-Lebanon breaks out in civil war: 60%. The economy is crumbling, there is growing conflict with Hezbollah. This year is election year for Lebanon, and with the explosion last year, and shattering of alliances with Hezbollah, this means an inevitable clash.

-Turkish economy continue to tank = 100%.

-There will be a bloodbath in the 2022 US elections = 90%. Lot's of things are stacking up against the Democrats. With inflation at a high, increasing criticism about policy regarding COVID and how Omicron is effecting it, the perceived disaster of the Afghanistan pullout, etc, this is going to be GOP's big year, and it's theirs's to lose it. As geo-political crises comes to a head it will put a ton of anxiety on the current administration and it's leadership.

-Pandemic policy may radically change – and the pandemic may be declared "over" = 60%. Omicron is increasingly becoming a big nothing burger, a highly infectious variant with far less mortality rate. Being that it is election year and people getting increasingly fed up with existing policies and threats of lockdowns, the Democrats will try to ease off of existing restrictions as more and more people recognize that there is less to be afraid of.

Saying that I also predict:

- A new variant emerges that feeds into the fear-porn that will be more contagious than omicron but even less deadly. = 50%.

/pol/ from the posting board 4chan will betray the USA and become an unironic far right terrorist organization and bomb something.

Ok this one is a bit of a stretch and I aint being serious but they seem to be getting more and more deranged as years go by, so I wouldnt be surprised either lol…

ofc Twitter could take over the USA undemocratically but that will take at least another 10 years. (again not serious but on the other hand idk)