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Rob Gale @galeforcerob People with flu:I feel s---. Just wanna stay in bed and do nothing People with Coronavirus: I feel s---. Just wanna go on holidays, see the world, maybe go skiing in Austria, see the Eiffel Tower, maybe some white water rafting, do the Camino de Santiago..

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corona vs. flu


Uploaded by Bridget Mar 04, 2020 at 05:37PM EST

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Sam Harris Q D A Gift a subscription 3. Elon and I didn't converge on a common view of epidemiology over the course of those two hours, but we hit upon a fun compromise: A wager. Elon bet me $1 million dollars (to be given to charity) against a bottle of fancy tequila ($1000) that we wouldn't see as many as 35,000 cases of Covid in the United States (cases, not deaths). The terms of the bet reflected what was, in his estimation, the near certainty (1000 to 1) that he was right. Having already heard credible estimates that there could be 1 million deaths from Covid in the U.S. over the next 12-18 months (these estimates proved fairly accurate), I thought the terms of the bet ridiculous and quite unfair to Elon. I offered to spot him two orders of magnitude: I was confident that we'd soon have 3.5 million cases of Covid in the U.S. Elon accused me of having lost my mind and insisted that we stick with a ceiling of 35,000. 4. We communicated sporadically by text over the next couple of weeks, while the number of reported cases grew. Ominously, Elon dismissed the next batch of data reported by the CDC as merely presumptive while confirmed cases of Covid, on his account, remained elusive. 5. A few weeks later, when the CDC website finally reported 35,000 deaths from Covid in the U.S. and 600,000 cases, I sent Elon the following text: Is (35,000 deaths + 600,000 cases) > 35,000 cases? 6. This text appears to have ended our friendship. Elon never responded, and it was not long before he began maligning me on Twitter for a variety of imaginary offenses. For my part, I eventually started complaining about the startling erosion of his integrity on my podcast, without providing any detail about what had transpired between us.
I guess we should retire the expression "avoid it like the plague given how little effort people put into avoiding an actual plague
FRED 35,000 Thousands of Persons 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 - Population - With a Disability, 16 Years and over 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics vurmm 2018 2019 wwwww 2020 2021 2022 2023 fred.stlouisfed.org D
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Nedhitis
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Nedhitis

As funny as this is, the problem is precisely that people with Corona do NOT feel like shit, since the virus has a long incubation period, somewhere between 15 and 30 days, and it has no symptoms for all that time while still being highly contagious. After these people are done making plans, executing them and having interacted with a bunch of people, only then does the virus feel like showing the first symptoms, and even then, early symptoms are pretty much just the same as flu, so you still cannot be sure with just a bit of coughing.

So yes, that is basically a full month of being completely blind about the highly contagious virus unless you specifically get checked for it, which is only done for people that went in contact with previously known cases of people that had it. There is good reason why it went as badly as it has so far, after all. It is no common flu that gets away with staying in bed and doing nothing for a day or 2.

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Uploaded Mar 04, 2020 at 05:37PM EST

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COVID-19 Pandemic

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flu, traveling, coronavirus

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