What Does The Image Of A Plane With Red Dots On It Mean? The 'Survivorship Bias Plane' Meme Explained

An image of a propellor plane dotted with red spots on its wings and tail has been making the rounds on the internet, and it is often posted alongside an insincere statement or in response to a questionable opinion. World War II buffs may know what the image refers to, but its use on the modern internet has become synonymous with a logical error about failures that are forgotten or swept under the rug.

Here's where the image of the survivorship bias plane originated, and how it is used in meme culture.

What Is 'Survivorship Bias' In Relation To WWII Planes?

The British Royal Air Force realized that their planes were suffering from German anti-aircraft fire during World War II, and the process of reinforcing the aircraft with bullet-proof armor began. Heavy armor had to be used sparingly on the planes, given that they still needed to be light and dexterous in the air.

Thus, the question of which part of the plane to reinforce was raised. The obvious answer to that question was to armor the planes in the parts they were getting shot the most; the wings and the tail. But one person disagreed.

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Abraham Ward, a Hungarian-born mathematician proposed that the planes be armored in the areas where there were no bullet holes. The reason for this, as he explained, was that the planes being shot in the areas showing no bullet holes were simply not making it back home.

The sample set for deciding armor placement was incomplete with only surviving planes being considered, and the idea of a bullet-riddled plane became the go-to imagery for depicting "survivorship bias."

Where Did The Image Of The 'Survivorship Bias Plane' Come From, And How Is It Used In Memes?

The specific image of the "survivorship bias plane" comes from a Wikipedia editor McGeddon, and the photo is based on past work by Cameron Mill in 2005.

As the creator of the original Wald diagram in 2005 that inspired the duplicates that have followed, absolutely yes. (Clearly the aircraft I chose at the time was not historically accurate.) pic.twitter.com/bVv3hyyKOn

— Cameron Moll (@cameronmoll) October 18, 2020

The image of the plane riddled with bullets is often used as a reaction image to respond to someone who displays a clear case of survivorship bias.

A classic example of such an image being used is in response to someone saying that trans people "can't pass," meaning that they have only ever noticed the people who obviously don't. Another example of the meme being used is to point out global corruption levels, which really only indicates reported corruption.

For the full history of the survivorship bias plane meme, be sure to check out Know Your Meme's encyclopedia entry for more information.