It won't go anywhere period. Outside of Germany, who single handily is taking any of this seriously, I fail to see how it's going to go. You think you're going to end fossil fuels? Tell that to oh so precious Scandinavian countries that are right now dependent heavily on their oil industries, and are actively fighting for growing arctic seas that are going to be one of the future battlefields.
As you said, neither China nor India is capable. Even at the rate China is investing into renewable energy, and alternative energy, it is not going to be able to sustain this kind of infrastructural spending, when it's economy is so close to being on the brink.
And behind all this world blistering and posturing it's the underdogs, the silent fighters who have been pushing the resources, and the technology forward to realize a future that is far more sustainable.
The Elon Musks who are investing so much in clean transportation. To Intel which is trying to make their chips and products be absolutely conflict free. To the gas companies developing a cleaner alternative to oil. Just to name a few.