Forums / Discussion / Serious Debate

The last thread died, so I thought i'd bring it back, since stuff has happened since the last thread.

It's getting closer and closer, and I'm still undecided, possibly leaning the leave side. I haven't really heard much from the Pro-Staying side other than what is really just scare mongering. Do I really want the safety over my beliefs, such as democratic organisations having power and control of our own immigration and borders?

Can we honestly reform the EU, if we stay? What's your opinions.

The whole point of the EU is open borders and free immigration, so that's really unlikely to be reformed. & at this point "safety" means importing a hundred thousand Muslims straight off the boat to show how multicultural and caring you are. Didn't France literally threaten to send boats of migrants if you pulled out? Ya'll are an island bruh, do as Australia does and turn any boats full of helpless immigrants around and push them back out to sea.

I haven't really been following the arguments on either side tho, I only care about the result.

We have also to consider the bigger picture, which would be the European politics stage and the European Union. Considering the rising tensions between the members, Poland's recent turn to the anti-EU camp, and the migrant crisis, Brexit may mark the fall of the Union.

I suppose that it boils down to what sort of future you want for Europe – more integrated, or more fragmentated, both have their upsides and downsides.

From my perspective, there are many upsides to being in the EU – for example, Britain is currently on the recieveing end of the Middle and Eastern European brain drain, with intelligensia migrating to the UK because of the aviability of it. While issues are clearly visible, the benefits are often hidden, and one needs to look carefully at the statistics to fully comprehend the impact of the EU.

I, personally, would want for Britain to stay in the Union. While reforming might not be possible, when facing a Brexit situation EU might consider more loose laws regarding the UK.

I've always been more of a pro-EU guy, but with the entire Greek deal and now Turkey I can understand the anti-EU party to an extend.

Still, the way I see it, the benefits of the EU outweigh the downsides.

The problem with the EU is that it grew too big. When the EU was first made, those countries had solid economies and were capable of fixing the mess that was post WWII Europe. The EU just bit off more than they could chew by inviting all those southern- and eastern- European countries in.

There was a discussion for a short while about quitting the current EU and starting over on a smaller scale and staying there. I fully supported that idea, because you keep all the benefits of the EU without being dragged down by countries that just can't get their shit together.

If the option however is staying in the EU or no EU at all, I will vote for staying.

Barack Obama said that the US strongly prefers that the UK stay in the European Union for the reason that the US's economy is better when one of its top trading partners, the UK, has a strong, stable economy. He also said that the UK's influence on Europe will be decreased if it leaves the Union, which is not desirable for the US.

I think the UK probably should leave the EU. From what I've seen and heard (I live on the other side of the Atlantic so I have no first hand experience) Britain is not getting as much out of the EU as it puts in. In 2015 Britain paid in £13bn, but only received £4.5bn worth of spending, millions of immigrants from eastern Europe pour in and take jobs and bring crime (excuse the Trumpism), its also easier for immigrants from non-EU countries (Syria, India, Pakistan for example) to get into the UK with the open borders, and it has regulations imposed on it by foreign powers.

If there were a North American Union I would be pretty pissed if people flooded in from central America/Mexico, used our tax money to pay for the debts of other countries in the union, and made us follow laws made up by some hippies in Canada.

I, personally, would want for Britain to stay in the Union. While reforming might not be possible, when facing a Brexit situation EU might consider more loose laws regarding the UK.

Planning on immigrating are ya?

Planning on emigrating, are ya?

Not to the UK.

What you have listed is a poor comparison – it's more as if the US consitution was never signed and all you had is that act of confederacy, with each state wanting something.

You don't get as much as you put in, at the first glance.
As I said, in terms of direct payments/donations, it is unfavourable. But you recieve a consumer market with zero export tariffs, a job market with specialists flooding to your country, and a way to influence the mainland. UK without EU will have considerably less political influence on what's going on in the region and in the world.

Staying in the EU would be ideal as we are exempt from some of the laws anyway. Other countries in the union are shutting their borders off which has resulted in less migrants coming in. I can see why some people want to get out economically wise.

One of the dangers of leaving I think is that Europeans would probably try screw over the UK if we left, it wouldn't surprise me if France tried that sort of thing.

The ideal situation is either the UK stays but with better compromises (AKA forcing less immigrants on our small landmass) or leaves and keeps a strong relationship. The problem is, they just don''t seem likely.

Despite all the claims that a Brexit would cause a massive negative impact on the UK, Ireland, the EU and US, to the point where our own Prime Minister claims that it could disrupt peace and stability to the world, no one seems desperate to keep the UK in the EU.

It honestly might take me till days before to decide my vote.

I'm voting to stay. I don't see any strong enough benefits to leaving that are worth the possible risks such as damage to our relationship with EU countries and the economic impact of trade and restrictions on free movement. In a more and more globalized world, it just doesn't make sense to distance yourself from neighbours.

I know there are concerns such as border controls but I think the UK has enough leverage to get some of their terms listened to in Brussels. And like Spider-Byte I think the dangers of leaving are oveblown by Cameron and other pro-EU figures, but that doesn't change my opinion that we're better off staying.

However, any actions by the EU that take power and sovereignty away from the UK will make me have to reconsider. Our relations with Europe are important, but we should put control of our own affairs first.

As an American, I would like to ask some questions. Specifically on the Pros and Cons of Both sides not relating to immigration. I want to know if there are other factors for leaving or staying in the European Union.

Oh if you can only go back 200 years ago and show those European warlords that all it took to unify Europe was economic power rather than continual bloodshed, how many millions of people would have not died.

This is basically the dispute though: you either want to be patriotic and disconnected to 'sort the country out ourselves' or we stick with unity.

According to the announcement of Brexit, it seemed like a conservatives argument anyway – Boris is like no and the PM is like yes, they argue and turn to us to decide. But maybe that's just me assuming the worst out of them, considering what they're (always) like.

Personally, i wouldn't miss the UK. Outsiders might not know this but England has been a pain in the ass cuz they always have to be against every fuckin single proposal being made. Democracy is great and all but everyone has to take and give.

Found this around for anyone willing to sit down and give it a watch:

BREXIT THE MOVIE FULL FILM from john smee on Vimeo.

Just in case you are from the UK and haven't registered to vote (and want to), you got till June 7th.

Pros of leaving the EU:
- No longer influenced by EU's laws and the support they give to countries like Greece.
- Something something something refugees.

Cons of leaving the EU:
- Lose all the benefits of being a part of the EU and forever be seen as this one party pooper.
- As an EU member, Britain and its companies can sell their goods freely to customers anywhere else in the EU without those customers having to pay additional taxes to import those goods. The EU also has agreements allowing free trade with countries outside the EU (ex. South Africa and South Korea). Outside the EU, Britain would need to strike new deals in order to have free trade with those countries or the remaining EU members.
- 500,000 without a job. Nearly the entire financial sector of the EU is stationed in London and around, it gives you around 500,000 jobs. Once Britain leaves the EU, do you think any of those companies will have any reason to stay in London? Of course not, so you got 500,000 without a job, as those companies will move to neighbouring countries (Netherlands, Belgium, France).
- Wave goodbye to Scotland. Scotland made pretty clear that they have NO intention to stay a part of Britain should they leave the EU, as Scotland wants to remain part of the EU.
- Remember that most southern part of Spain that's owned by Britain, Gibraltar? Only reason Spain is not making an issue out of it is due to Europe, but Spain and Britain have been in war over it in the past. Once Britain leaves the EU, Gibraltar is no longer part of the EU either. It's only a countdown to the annexation of Gibraltar at that point, including anything that comes after. Spain already threatened with this.

It seriously baffles me how anyone in Britain could be so retarded to vote for leaving. Then again, I doubt the majority looks beyond stuff like Greece and refugees.

Counter Points

- Lose all the benefits of being a part of the EU and forever be seen as this one party pooper.

Also lose all the negative parts about being in the EU.

- As an EU member, Britain and its companies can sell their goods freely to customers anywhere else in the EU without those customers having to pay additional taxes to import those goods. The EU also has agreements allowing free trade with countries outside the EU (ex. South Africa and South Korea). Outside the EU, Britain would need to strike new deals in order to have free trade with those countries or the remaining EU members.

However, the UK gets no choice in who they trade with, countries like India, which have a lot more in common with the UK than even some of the closest neigbours of the UK, and is a constantly growing economy. Plus, how is having to strike new deals, in which we have control of what we give and take worse?

- 500,000 without a job. Nearly the entire financial sector of the EU is stationed in London and around, it gives you around 500,000 jobs. Once Britain leaves the EU, do you think any of those companies will have any reason to stay in London? Of course not, so you got 500,000 without a job, as those companies will move to neighbouring countries (Netherlands, Belgium, France).

They already have reason to be in London in the first place, because it is a profitable place to be. Why did they choose the UK over France or another nation member in the EU?

- Wave goodbye to Scotland. Scotland made pretty clear that they have NO intention to stay a part of Britain should they leave the EU, as Scotland wants to remain part of the EU.

This is not set in stone. If the UK prospers so much on its own after leaving, would they still go out their way to leave?

- Remember that most southern part of Spain that’s owned by Britain, Gibraltar? Only reason Spain is not making an issue out of it is due to Europe, but Spain and Britain have been in war over it in the past. Once Britain leaves the EU, Gibraltar is no longer part of the EU either. It’s only a countdown to the annexation of Gibraltar at that point, including anything that comes after. Spain already threatened with this.

So literally threatening the nation with what? War? The UK wont passively let its territory just fade away.

You completely seem to ignore that people want to make their own decisions about the country that they live in. That people may feel that the system in which they are a part of is not democratic. If you honestly believe that a Brexit has no merit and accuse those who want it to be uninformed, it's one of the most hypocritical things said on this site.

I thought you might be open to things such as listening to the other side. You're not showing Europe in a positive light saying such things. I've not made my choice but ironically you are actually pushing me more in the leave direction than the in one.

They already have reason to be in London in the first place, because it is a profitable place to be. Why did they choose the UK over France or another nation member in the EU?

Those companies and agencies are EU-orientated because they do EU-related business for the EU. The EU is the entire reason they are there. There no longer is any reason to remain there if Britain is not a part of the EU, regardless of how profitable Britain is. These are European banks, European agencies, etc. Not your normal companies.

It's not that difficult to comprehend.

So literally threatening the nation with what? War? The UK wont passively let its territory just fade away.

No war. They're both NATO members, brainiac.

Segregation. Seperate it entirely from Spain, literally build a border, deny it any support, leave its economy to rot. There is no reason for Spain to give two shits about Gibraltar if Britain isn't an EU member anymore.

It's not quite that clear cut in terms of business. Three of the five largest companies in Europe are headquartered in the UK, and two of them are oil/gas companies. They're under some of the most stringent regulations in the EU, which the UK has (as SJM points out) tried their best to block. We've been seeing the result of those regulations as the EU has shown very low economic growth and in some years none at all. Despite that, the UK is still the fastest growing economy within the EU.

Being part of a global economy means you make yourself less competitive, and when Asian/etc countries aren't playing by the same fair labor standards, you face the same problems the US faces (manufacturing exodus to cheaper countries). That's even more of a disaster for the countries that run socialized programs which rely on the people's taxes to keep funded. The UK's labor participation has been steadily ~62%…. that's the dire level the US' participation rate has fallen to over the past ten years. It will only get worse as globalization spreads, and the UK's GDP is already projected as declining even if they stay members of the EU.

This boil down to US election 2k16 lite: do you stay and suffer the consequences of globalization which aids big government and big corporations, which will eventually lead to a non-working population living on a minimalist monthly government allowance while the slave labor countries see themselves become the next superpowers? or do you leave and force the establishment to renegotiate protections and economic security for the citizens of the UK, with a government that makes deals and fights in the interest of its people's long term well being instead of the profits of global monopolies which are operating under the impression that the world can support infinite economic growth?

UK is still the fastest growing economy within the EU.

Source, please.

Because if you measure either: real GDP growth, GNP growth or PPP GDP, then UK is in the middle, at very best. Same goes for unemployment and a number of other nice economical statistics.
Unless you mean Gibraltar, which indeed has the biggest real GDP growth out there. Economical powerhouse, I know.

In any case, please do source your data – this one is blatantly false.

EDIT: Also, loving the overabundance of logical fallacies in Lisa's latest post – too many to list. Strawmen, slippery slope, black-or-white… I'd say that both sides have some good arguments on their side, however since I'm not on the forums 24/7 to debate political or economical stances because of the work that I have to do, I won't engage in a pointless (as seen before) and endless argument.

The IMF has rated the UK the fastest growing economy every year since 2k14, other than China and India. & here's a BBC article confirming as of 2016. Also notes: { Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. "Production output declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter and construction was down by 0.1%, whereas the dominant services sector grew by 0.7%." } This is in line with the US, where manufacturing and production continue to decline while retail and food service expand (high wage production jobs disappearing, minimum wage service jobs expanding). Here's UK labor participation data showing a very slight dip from a relatively steady 62%… …and the US labor participation which shows 62% being our 38-year low point.

What else would you like to know that was easily available for you to find with a couple keywords in Google before you posted that little ragequit nicely thrown in at the end there: you're of course too important and busy to engage in a pointless argument… once the other person shows up to respond, so you're gonna go ahead and get yourself out before anyone does! Classy!

In Serious Discussion you're supposed to use your big boy words and respond, not bury posts that are correct because you're salty

And stay on topic instead of making a doublepost to rub your e-penis.

I only call it out when it happens in SD, where people are actually expected to express their opinions instead of abusing the voting system. That's another conversation this site has had over and over and over without anything changing.

But back to the point, business has been hopping on board the Brexit train these last few weeks for some of the exact reasons I mentioned.

{ “Regulation is our biggest handicap in the global race,” says Robert Hiscox, retired chairman of Hiscox Ltd, a Lloyd’s of London underwriter. “And if you add on to it the extra layer of very bad and corrupt government from the EU, the waste of money is phenomenal.”

Sir Rocco Forte, owner of the eponymous hotel chain, says the UK has been held back by the lack of impetus for reform in continental Europe.

Even though the industry in which Sir Rocco operates is highly dependent on non-UK staff, he says he “could live with” stricter rules on employing people from overseas. “This country has had the fastest growing economy in Europe for a while. It’s a magnet for people,” he says. }

"Brexit" sound like a type of cereal, I dunno why everyone's so taken up with the term, it just sounds so dumb.

Not being old enough to vote (Because the one month in between is needed to give me ALL THE WISDOM needed to know what I'm doing), if I were to vote I'd be voting to stay, simply put the strengths very heavily outweight the cons, for most of the reasons RM listed.

Funny, I was reading a news story the other day about how apparently according to polls British citizens are more concerned about whether Scotland leave us rather than us leaving the EU. Given that Scotland would definitely be going forward with that second referendum Sturgeon wants so much if we were to leave, if more people clued into that maybe they would want to stay in? Not really a big point, but just a random thought.

I said that I won't post again, however the butchery that Lisa does to statistics force me to do it once more.

First of all, I'd prefer if you linked to actual studies instead of articles, as you often omit important keywords such as "developed western" economies.
While accordring to IMF it's true that the UK was the fastest growing economy out of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan and Canada, in *2014 it's not the fastest growing European or global economy, "except China and India".

Moreover, if you cared enough to actually visit their site instead of British news, you'd notice that in 2015 United States and Spain had bigger economical growth than the UK, and those are major western economies.

The World Bank confirms this notion, so it's not like I cherrypicked data cough like a certain Texas Sharpshooter cough, but let me repeat this: The UK is definitely not the fastest growing European economy, bah, it even isn't the fastest growing developed economy.

I'll list countries within the EU that have bigger economical growth than the UK (2.3 in the report), all in the EU (2015), according to European Comission of Economic and Financial Affairs :

Ireland – 7.8 <---- Fastest growing EU economy, BTW
Spain – 3.2
Latvia – 2.7
Luxemburg – 4.8
Malta – 6.3
Slovenia 2.9
Slovakia – 3.6
Bulgaria – 3.0
Czech Republic – 4.2
Hungary – 2.9
Poland – 3.6
Romania – 3.8
Sweden – 4.1

As you can see, the UK is actually the 14th fastest growing economy (relating to real GDP growth) in Europe. 14/28. It's literally in the middle. Not the "best-growing economy in Europe", and not even the "fastest-growing developed country", as the US and Spain managed to surpass them after… one year.

Once again as I said – I do not want to be involved in the discussion about Brexit with you, Lisa, as it's about as pleasurable as sticking a cactus into your anus.

However, I will not tolerate statistic manipulations and simply false facts. Built upon them as you will, but what I said here is confirmed by credible sources, including IMF, which you appealed to before.

{ Moreover, if you cared enough to actually visit their site instead of British news, you’d notice that in 2015 United States and Spain had bigger economical growth than the UK, and those are major western economies. }

If you cared enough to actually read what I link you to, you'd know the 2015 rate for the US was dramatically adjusted downwards. It was actually adjusted to show negative growth in the first quarter of 2015. & your IMF link shows the 2014 totals (and even there the UK is still higher than Emerging/Developing Europe btw) and estimates for 2015, hence the revisions.

bruh can you even read?

Table from your World Bank link:

e = estimate, f = forecast

How exactly is this confirming for us that the US and Spain had higher GDPs?!
(also note the UKs rate vs the Euro area)

{ according to European Comission of Economic and Financial Affairs : }

This entire link is a PROJECTION.
It's the 2016 SPRING FORECAST, so it's not even like it covers a full year.
It is titled as such (European Economic Forecast, Spring 2016), so I'm not sure how you missed it.

You wanna talk about stat manipulation and simply false facts, you're blatantly lying (or maybe you're just really bad with numbers?) and trying to pass off predictions as fact.

Reminder to those who haven't, you have till the 7th (4 days) to register to vote.

Huge poll swing towards LEAVE with 12 days to go. How exciting.

{ The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned. Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three).

Differential turnout could prove crucial. ORB found that 78 per cent of Leave supporters say they will definitely vote – describing themselves as a “10” on a scale of 0-10, while only 66 per cent of Remain supporters say the same. }

The Telegraph also reports on the surge towards leave: 'Panicked' Remain camp plans to 'take out Boris' as polls swing in Brexit campaign's favour

{ Downing Street is “panicked” over the EU referendum amid growing internal signs that support for the Leave campaign is surging.

Private data and internal polling which shows that after two weeks of building momentum there have been huge swings to the Brexit campaign has prompted growing alarm in the Remain camp, sources have said. }

It's tomorrow, UK memers! Let us know if you see anything bananas at your polling place.

I wonder if anyone is going to try and resort to violence at these places. This is a big issue after all, and in the current political climate, a brawl outside of the voting office wouldn't be that unbelievable. Especially with so many thinking this is a live or die, make or break, black and white choice and taking it as seriously as they do. Some martyr complex people might get it in their heads that it'd be a good thing to hurt their fellow man if it meant saving the future.

brexit will either be the worst or best thing to happen to the EU

probably the best

@Lisa & Triangle

Those stats are cool and all, but all rely on a Britain that is part of the EU, as part of the reason for their score is the benefits they get from the EU.

I doubt that World Bank forecast will remain the same if Britain leaves. One thing all guys that did their math agreed upon is that Britain's economy will take some blows at least the first couple years after a Brexit.

yah the Eurozone's GDP was negative and UK's was a full two points higher because of all those EU benefits The UK has managed in spite of the EU's mismanagement and dumbass policies which have TANKED the rest of Europe. Ya'll (and Denmark iirc) specifically set up terms so you are NOT obliged to participate in the Eurozone. Good choice! Make another one today and ditch the EU altogether.

>Comparing a EU average to Britain when the average has all those Southern+Eastern countries draining the average

Hoo boy, it's like you never had math. Try again, Pythagoras.

Europe means free trade, something Britain greatly benfits from like the other not-shitty countries. That free trade gave their GDP a good boost.

That they kept the Pound is a hit and miss cus it fluctuates constantly, but on average the Pound is doing better than the Euro sure.

But not anymore if that Brexit happens. It'll plummet the value of the pound, exactly because of that free trade loss. We just got out of a recession, I hope Britain's ready for the next.

All those southern and eastern countries who also benefit from being in the EU!? You do know the UK's greatest trade DEFICIT is with the EU, right? It keeps expanding and setting new records for the largest gap. The fuck kind of benefit is that? Sounds like exactly what we have going on with Mexico and China. We import from them, but they do not extend the same courtesy. Leave the EU and renegotiate the failed globalized trade bills, one of Trump's key campaign strategies! For all the hate he's getting, ya'll sure seem to think his policies are on point lately.

Wow, is that really the cover the Sun's running with? I mean, I knew they're a disgusting publication because of the whole Hillsborough thing, but… really? "Clutches of the EU," that's some straight-up Breitbart-level headlining.

After early counts suggested remain, leave jumps out in front!

omg this the most exciting vote I've watched this year do it UK JUST D O I T

Sky News live

The UK has voted to exit the EU.

its over lads

britain is dead

No man, freedom is alive. This is their 4th of July.

africa also had freedom but they dont seem so good now with it.

Wow, that Sun cover is outright Leave propaganda. Same goes for the Daily Express cover.

Anyways, I actually want to see the UK leave the EU just because it's such a big change; I fucking hate the status quo… though I probably shouldn't say something like that, as I don't understand the impact of a decision such as leaving the EU. Still, it's pretty historic.

A 4th of July for the country that has invaded most of the world and is the reason why most other countries have an independence day in the first place? Really?
Plus, it's not like the EU was a totalitarian dystopia hanging over their heads. They had a voice in it, hardly taxation without representation.
RIP the Pound's prominent spot of monetary worth.

>Africa
>"freedom"

@I am AHO Right?
Dude, the vast majority of people in the UK weren't even alive when it was still a huge empire. How is that relevant?
And I've seen enough to convince me that the EU is too shady to risk it.

{ as I don’t understand the impact of a decision such as leaving the EU }

Nobody does, thanks for being the guinea pig tho.
We're all very interested in how leave negotiations will go.

I can't wait for all the not-changes that are going to happen, just like all the not-benefits they would have gotten staying in the EU. Because for as much chest thumping and threatening the EU did, it's not going to see britian suffer economically if it can help it. Because its one of the most wealthy nations in the region, should they try to follow through with the borderline threat to tank the UK's economy in retribution, they actually lack the funds and the seperation to do so without suffering massive recessions themselves.

Additionally, the EU is currently suffering a massive economic crisis over how many unemployed there are currently in major countries like Germany and France? The backbones of the EU's economy considering how unreliable Spain, Italy, and Greece have been?

To me, I wouldn't look to the Pounds value decreasing. If anything, I'd watch out for the drop in profit that the Euro will go through now.

So as an ignorant American who hasn't really been keeping up with any of this stuff… does any of this have some sort of "ripple effect" that could end up affecting Americans too? Or is this just so much a "Europe only" thing that Americans can just go "so?"

More so here in the thread I'm noticing mixed reactions from the majority vote being "leave," but in the comments section people are being all like "OMG YES YES YES!", and saying something about "/pol/'s gonna have an orgasm" which frankly isn't a metaphor I'd use to describe a good thing.

@A Black Graphic T
The Pound is already dropping. Not much to be argued about there.
@Mistress Fortune
I heard that stocks in Japan have already started to fall in a slight domino effect, wouldn't be surprised if it hit America and other big players eventually. Because, despite what UKIP might believe, you can't just escape modern capitalism and go full-isolationist. (As many countries in South America, African and Asia would know, since they tried to rid themselves of foreign governments and businesses and ended up getting invaded and having their leaders assassinated and replaced with pro-foreign business puppets. Thankfully, Britain doesn't have to worry about that, mainly because they were the ones doing the covert ops, if not America.)
That being said, it should be noted, as our favorite time-telling Brit himself, John Oliver mentioned, Britain leaving the EU doesn't actually free them from pesky regulations because in order to trade with EU, their biggest trading partner, they'll still need to comply with said regulations, anyways.
All in all, Britain will probably face some sort of economic downturn, its severity still uncertain. But that's what happens when you vote for ideological reasons and fall for the paradox of wealthy populists pretending to care about the average man. Too bad Americans don't pay tons of attention to world news, it's a great warning against Trump…