About

p(doom), short for "probability of doom", is a slang term for the probability a person assigns to artificial intelligence causing human extinction or a similarly catastrophic outcome. It is usually given as a percentage, and the question "What's your p(doom)?" has become a common icebreaker for AI researchers, tech executives and podcast guests. Online, the term is also used jokingly, with people posting their own p(doom) or saying it went up after a piece of AI news.

Origin

The earliest known use of the term is a comment by programmer Tim Tyler on the rationalist forum LessWrong, posted on May 25th, 2009, under Eliezer Yudkowsky's post "This Failing Earth". The comment opens with "I was wondering why p(doom) has apparently been so consistently overestimated", meaning the term was first used by a doom skeptic. Tyler has since described doom as "the most unsuccessful prediction of all time". In December 2023, The New York Times also reported that Tyler first used the term.

Spread

For years, the term was used mostly within LessWrong and the AI safety community. It went mainstream in 2023, after the release of ChatGPT set off public debate about AI risk. AI researchers, tech leaders and politicians were asked for their p(doom) in interviews and on podcasts, and news outlets covered it as Silicon Valley's new metric. On social media, "What's your p(doom)?" became a recurring question and joke, and the term has since appeared in memes, music and short-form videos.