C05962115uSE SITUATION ROOM This approach gives Milosevic something now, while retaining relatively more sanctions leverage for later in the peace process. . CON This plan may not be attractive to Milosevic, who has indicated to negotiators that he wants near-total sanctions relief The plan contradicts the President's letter to Senator Dole. It requires a UN resolution. ☆久 Other Issues The following two issues need decision, whether or not interim sanctions relief is offered When will UN sanctions against the FRY be lifted? At issue is how long to preserve the threat of reimposing sanctions as a hedge against Serb backsliding on the peace settlement. Each of the three alternatives proposes lifting UN sanctions against the FRY at full implementation of the peace agreement, but full implementation has never been defined in this context. Possible points after which sanctions could be lifted include Successful implementation of the military aspects of the peace agreement and withdrawal of IFOR, Achievement of a rough balance of power between the entities to ensure a stable military situation after IFOR withdraws, and/or National elections. 444マ Lifting sanctions before IFOR's departure surrenders sanetions leverage while NATO troops are stil on the ground, thus reducing options for deterring Serb threats against IFOR's safety or interference with its ability to accomplish its mission. Similarly, sanctions leverage could be used to induce Serb parties to abide by arms control measures in the peace agreement. It may also be desirable to retain the threat of reimposing sanctions in response to Serb misbehavior until after elections, a major political goal. On the other hand, Belgrade and Russia press for early lift of sanctions, arguing that the FRY has met its obligations once the settlement is signed 00G000000 0094000000900 6

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C05962115uSE SITUATION ROOM This approach gives Milosevic something now, while retaining relatively more sanctions leverage for later in the peace process. . CON This plan may not be attractive to Milosevic, who has indicated to negotiators that he wants near-total sanctions relief The plan contradicts the President's letter to Senator Dole. It requires a UN resolution. ☆久 Other Issues The following two issues need decision, whether or not interim sanctions relief is offered When will UN sanctions against the FRY be lifted? At issue is how long to preserve the threat of reimposing sanctions as a hedge against Serb backsliding on the peace settlement. Each of the three alternatives proposes lifting UN sanctions against the FRY at full implementation of the peace agreement, but full implementation has never been defined in this context. Possible points after which sanctions could be lifted include Successful implementation of the military aspects of the peace agreement and withdrawal of IFOR, Achievement of a rough balance of power between the entities to ensure a stable military situation after IFOR withdraws, and/or National elections. 444マ Lifting sanctions before IFOR's departure surrenders sanetions leverage while NATO troops are stil on the ground, thus reducing options for deterring Serb threats against IFOR's safety or interference with its ability to accomplish its mission. Similarly, sanctions leverage could be used to induce Serb parties to abide by arms control measures in the peace agreement. It may also be desirable to retain the threat of reimposing sanctions in response to Serb misbehavior until after elections, a major political goal. On the other hand, Belgrade and Russia press for early lift of sanctions, arguing that the FRY has met its obligations once the settlement is signed 00G000000 0094000000900 6

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