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Donald Trump's AI-Generated Reciprocal Tariffs Formula Rumor

Added 22 days ago / Updated 22 days ago
Trump_tariffs_ai_use_explainer_cover

Submission   3,389

Part of a series on Donald Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs / Trump Recession. [View Related Entries]

r/technology 2h ⚫ latintimes.com 0 Trump Accused of Using ChatGPT to Create Tariff Plan After Al Leads Users to Same Formula: 'So Al is Running the Country' 12.6k ☐ 539 Join Reciprocal Tariffs
rohit @krishnanrohit Subscribe This might be the first large-scale application of Al technology to geopolitics.. 40, 03 high, Gemini 2.5 pro, Claude 3.7, Grok all give the same answer to the question on how to impose tariffs easily. EMETTE FAMI ་་་ཡ། ༔སྡད ། ད་ཡས་ ཚ་་་་ ་་ཕ་ "IF༅་༥། " 100) For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor. This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so: 3. Apply a tariff rate that corresponds to this percentage, with your minimum 10% floor: Tariff Rate = max(Deficit Percentage, 10%) Okay, let's break down the idea of using tariffs to achieve an "even playing field" defined as eliminating the US trade deficit. While the goal of balancing trade is understandable, devising an "easy way" to calculate tariffs to achieve this is extremely complex, and most economists would argue it's not feasible or desirable for several reasons. However, let's outline a highly simplified conceptual approach based only on the numbers, ignoring the vast real-world complexities and consequences: I༧FI༄rI༥༦ ༥ FIV༥uI TIZT HI༦༧༥ སྡེསI༦ ཅ སྡེŲ VV ༥uཔཱུ partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency): This creates a proportional response where countries with larger trade surpluses with the US would face higher tariffs. For example: Country Deficit (USD Total Trade Deficit % Calculate d Tariff % Billion) (USD Billion) • If Country A has a 25% trade surplus with the US (meaning the US has a 25% deficit), apply a 25% tariff China -295 582 50.69% 35.3% Mexico -172 840 20.48% 20.2% • If Country B has a 5% trade surplus with the US, apply the minimum 10% tariff Vietnam -123 (Data ~30% 25.0% 5:14 PM Apr 2, 2025 16K Views 7 1750 145 Σ 41 1 <]
r/technology • 20 hr. ago Yveliad Trump Accused of Using ChatGPT to Create Tariff Plan After Al Leads Users to Same Formula: 'So Al is Running the Country' Artificial Intelligence ESIDENT Reciprocal Tariffs Country Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A. Including and trade Barriers U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tarifis China 67% 34% European Union 39% 20% Vietnam 90% 46% Taiwan 64% 32% Japan 46% 24% India 52% 26% South Korea 50% 25% Thailand 72% 36% Switzerland 61% 31% Indonesia 64% 32% Malaysia 47% 24% 97% 49% 10% 10% 60% 30% 10% 10% UNIT 74% 37% 10% 10% 33% 17% 3.4% 17% OF THE
ViHold @v_holdam ChatGPT and Grok The Secret Masterminds Behind Trump's Tariffs? X users uncovered that Trump's tariff plan is ChatGPT's brainchild: the table and formula (half the trade balance-to-import ratio) match the Al's answers. Who's the real economic genius here? #tariffs This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports. Extending to Other Countries To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency): what would be an easy way to calculate the arms that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10% Calculating tariffs to balance the trade deficit is a complex economic problem and cannot be accurately reduced to a simple formula. However, if we are looking for a basic approach, one way to conceptualize it is by considering the trade deficit ratio between the US and a trading partner. Simplified Approach: 1. Calculate Trade Deficit Ratio: Country Deficit (USD Total Deficit % Calculate Trade Deficit Ratio Trade Deficit with Country Total Trade with Country Trade d Tariff % Billion) (USD TO 70 India 52% 26% Billion) China -295 582 50.69% 35.3% South Korea Thailand 50% 25% 72% 36% Mexico -172 840 20.48% 20.2% Switzerland 61% 31% Indonesia 64% 32% Vietnam -123 (Data -30% 25.0% Malaysia 47% 24% incomplet Cambodia 97% 49% e, estimate) United Kingdom 10% 10% South Africa 60% 30% Ireland -87 (Data -25% 22.5% Brazil 10% 10% incomplet Bangladesh 74% 37% e. 6:16 AM Apr 3, 2025 1,791 Views
rohit @krishnanrohit Subscribe This might be the first large-scale application of Al technology to geopolitics.. 40, 03 high, Gemini 2.5 pro, Claude 3.7, Grok all give the same answer to the question on how to impose tariffs easily. 100) For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100) 100 -20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor. This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so: 3. Apply a tariff rate that corresponds to this percentage, with your minimum 10% floor: Tariff Rate - max(Deficit Percentage, 10%) This creates a proportional response where countries with larger trade surpluses with the US would face higher tariffs. For example: Okay, let's break down the idea of using tariffs to achieve an "even playing field" defined as eliminating the US trade deficit. While the goal of balancing trade is understandable, devising an "easy way to calculate tariffs to achieve this is extremely complex, and most economists would argue it's not feasible or desirable for several reasons. However, let's outline a highly simplified conceptual approach based only on the numbers, ignoring the vast real-world complexities and consequences: partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency): Country Deficit (USD Total Trade Deficit % Calculate d Tariff % Billion) (USD Billion) If Country A has a 25% trade surplus with the US (meaning the US has a 25% deficit), apply a 25% tariff China -295 582 50.69% 35.3% Mexico If Country B has a 5% trade surplus with the US, apply the minimum 10% tariff 8:14 AM Apr 3, 2025. 785.6K Views -172 840 20.48% 20.2% Vietnam -123 (Data -30% 25.0% 103 942 Post your reply 2.8K 1.2K ↑ Reply rohit @krishnanrohit. 5h I think the fact they're using LLMS is good but they def need better prompt engineers I think. This is now an Al safety issue. Q17 rohit 1722 @krishnanrohit 5h This is Vibe Governing 17 194 379 45K 1 751 51 il 42K ធ...
This is a copy of a conversation between ChatGPT & Anonymous Report content What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. To calculate tariffs that help level the playing field in terms of trade deficits (with a minimum tariff of 10%), you can use a proportional tariff formula based on the trade deficit with each country. The idea is to impose higher tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has larger trade deficits, thus incentivizing more balanced trade. Here's a simple and intuitive formula you could use: Tariff Formula: Tariff Rate max (10%, x (10%, (1 Trade Deficit with Country Total Imports from that Country/ x 100 *Steps to Calculate: 1. Get Trade Data for Each Country: • U.S. Imports from Country X • U.S. Exports to Country X • Trade Deficit = Imports - Exports (if positive) 2. Plug Into Formula: • If Trade Deficit > 0 → use formula • If Trade Deficit s 0- tariff = 10% minimum (or even 0%, depending on your goals)
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Overview

Donald Trump's AI-Generated Reciprocal Tariff Formula Rumor, also known as Donald Trump's Tariff Formula Controversy or Donald Trump's AI Tariff Debate, refers to the viral discussions and controversy surrounding the alleged use of artificial intelligence tools, particularly ChatGPT, for calculating the reciprocal tariffs announced by United States President Donald Trump in early Arpril 2025. Shortly after the executive order was revealed, internet users and media outlets speculated that the formula for these tariffs, which range from 10 percent to 49 percent on goods imported from various countries, may have been derived from large language models (LLMs). Online, the rumor of Trump's tariff formula being created with AI chatbots sparked heated debates, memes and jokes on Twitter / X, Reddit and TikTok. The Trump administration has since denied the use of AI to calculate the tariffs, publishing the formula they claim was used by their team.

Background

On April 2nd, 2025, American economist and X user @JamesSurowiecki tweeted[1] about reverse-engineering a possible explanation for President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff pricing, stating, "for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us." The tweet (seen below) amassed over 18 million views and 94,000 likes in two days.

American economist @JamesSurowiecki tweeted out a possible explanation for how the Trump administration calculated what tariffs to levy on foreign countries, writing, "for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."

As netizens started to question the formula used in the executive order, some theories and claims were spawned, speculating that some of the calculations in Trump's tariff were generated by AI chatbots.

X[2] user @krishnanrohit posted one of the earliest comments about the topic on April 2nd, sharing a series of images showing how several LLMs responded to the question of how to impose tariffs easily. The tweet (seen below) shows ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok all advising a formula similar to the one used by the U.S. government. The post received over 1.6 million views, 6,300 likes and 180 replies in two days.

Grok 3 the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is $295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff % = 10% + (Deficit % x Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration: • Tariff = 10% + (50.69% x 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%. This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports. Extending to Other Countries To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency): Country Deficit (USD Total Deficit % Calculate Trade d Tariff % Billion) (USD Billion) China -295 582 50.69% 35.3% Mexico -172 840 20.48% 20.2% Vietnam -123 (Data ~30% 25.0% incomplet e, estimate) Ireland -87 (Data ~25% 22.5% incomplet e, estimate) Germany -85 (Data ~20% 20.0% incomplet e, estimate) Ask anything + DeepSearch Think
K Claude 3.7 Sonnet What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. To calculate tariffs that could theoretically level the playing field for trade deficits, I'd suggest a straightforward approach based on the trade imbalance percentage: 1. Calculate the bilateral trade deficit with each trading partner: Trade Deficit - US Imports from Country - US Exports to Country 2. Express this as a percentage of total bilateral trade: Deficit Percentage = (Trade Deficit / Total Bilateral Trade) × 100 3. Apply a tariff rate that corresponds to this percentage, with your minimum 10% floor: Tariff Rate = max(Deficit Percentage, 10%) This creates a proportional response where countries with larger trade surpluses with the US would face higher tariffs. For example: • If Country A has a 25% trade surplus with the US (meaning the US has a 25% deficit), apply a 25% tariff • If Country B has a 5% trade surplus with the US, apply the minimum 10% tariff This method is relatively simple to calculate and directly ties tariff levels to trade imbalances. However, I should note that economists generally caution that trade deficits alone don't necessarily indicate unfair trade practices, and tariffs can have complex economic consequences including increased consumer prices and potential retaliation. Would you like me to elaborate on any part of this approach or discuss potential refinements to make it more sophisticated? Claude can make mistakes. Please double check responses. Reply to Claude... +
aistudio.google.com/prompts/new_chat Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental 03-25 + System Instructions when it comes to trade deficit? Set Minimum at 1076. Thoughts *The thoughts produced by the model are experimental Expand to view model thoughts & √ Okay, let's break down the idea of using tariffs to achieve an "even playing field" defined as eliminating the US trade deficit. While the goal of balancing trade is understandable, devising an "easy way" to calculate tariffs to achieve this is extremely complex, and most economists would argue it's not feasible or desirable for several reasons. However, let's outline a highly simplified conceptual approach based only on the numbers, ignoring the vast real-world complexities and consequences: Simplified (and Problematic) Calculation Idea: 1. Identify the Bilateral Deficit: Determine the trade deficit the US has with a specific country (Country X). Deficit X = Value of Imports from X - Value of • Exports to X 2. Target Reduction: The goal is to reduce imports from Country X (or increase their cost to US buyers) by the amount of the deficit, so that the value effectively balances out. 3. Calculate Required Tariff (Ignoring Economics): • If you assume, very unrealistically, that a tariff directly reduces the value of imports by a corresponding percentage (which it doesn't - it increases the price), you could try: Required Reduction % = Deficit X / Value of ■Imports from X Type something
← ChatGPT се What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form: Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit + Total Imports) × 100) For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor. This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so: Python Copy code def calculate tariff(trade_deficit, total_imports): # Calculate the deficit ratio as a percentage ratio (trade_deficit total_imports) * 100 # Enforce a minimum tariff of 10% return max(10, ratio) # Example usage: tariff calculate_tariff (2009, 100e9) # $20B deficit on $100B imports yields a 20% tariff print("The tariff rate should be (tariff)%") While this approach is straigh rd and mathematically simple it's critically oversimplified-trade definite recult from a Ask anything 三

On April 3rd, 2025, X[3] user @quendergeer also shared a theory that the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs were derived using AI given that the list of countries being tariffed included uninhabited islands like McDonald and Heard, which are barren, have active volcanoes and are mostly home to penguins. Furthermore, the tweet puts forward the idea that the regions taxed were divided by internet domains and not according to governing bodies. The tweet (seen below) received roughly 4 million views and 106,000 likes in a day.

X user @quendergeer shared the theory that the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs were derived using AI, given that the list of countries being tariffed included islands like McDonald and Heard, which are barren, have active volcanos, and where no humans currently reside. Furthermore, the tweet puts forward the idea that the regions taxed were divided by internet domains and not according to governing bodies.

Also on April 3rd, The Verge[4] published an article discussing the possibility that Donald Trump's tariffs were devised using LLMs, testing the prompts given by netizens to the AI bots, as well as adding more intricate requests and details to be more aligned with the formula used by the U.S. Government. The website claims that all four platforms gave "the same fundamental suggestion."

Developments

Trump Administration Shares Formula

On April 3rd, 2025, the Trump administration denied the use of AI to calculate the tariffs, publishing the formula[5] they claimed to use, as well as the justification for its choice.

According to the article, the "calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing" (seen below).

Basic Approach Consider an environment in which the U.S. levies a tariff of rate T_i on country i and AT_i reflects the change in the tariff rate. Let ε<0 represent the elasticity of imports with respect to import prices, let p>0 represent the passthrough from tariffs to import prices, let m_i>0 represent total imports from country i, and let x_i>0 represent total exports. Then the decrease in imports due to a change in tariffs equals AT_i*&*Q*m_i<0. Assuming that offsetting exchange rate and general equilibrium effects are small enough to be ignored, the reciprocal tariff that results in a bilateral trade balance of zero satisfies: Δτι xi - mi ε * Q * mi

Online Reactions

The rumors quickly spread on social media in early April 2025, sparking many jokes, memes and discussions about the supposed use of AI to calculate Trump's tariffs.

For instance, on April 3rd, 2025, X[6] @SethAbramson shared The Verge's article on the rumor, writing, "They [Trump Administration] didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves." The tweet (seen below) amassed more than 83,000 views and 4,300 likes in a day.

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson OMG... it was all Al. They didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves. It almost feels... impeachable? How could sloppily using Al to create domestic policy, then hiding it, be consistent with the Oath of Office? Trump's new tariff math looks a lot like ChatGPT's From theverge.com 8:50 PM - Apr 3 2025.83.9K Views Ee

On April 3rd, TikTok[7] user @factstogrind posted a video commenting on the rumor that the Trump Administration used ChatGPT to calculate the reciprocal tariffs, which garnered over 201,000 plays and 17,000 likes in a day.

@factstogrind Trump just asked ChatGPT #foryoupage ♬ original sound – Facts to Grind

Search Interest

External References

[1] Twitter / X – JamesSurowiecki

[2] Twitter / X – krishnanrohit

[3] Twitter / X – quendergeer

[4] The Verge – Trump's Tariff Math Looks Like ChatGPT's

[5] Office of the United States Trade Representative – Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

[6] X – SethAbramson

[7] TikTok – factstogrind

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Donald Trump's AI-Generated tariff numbers controversy image and tweet example.

Donald Trump's AI-Generated Reciprocal Tariffs Formula Rumor

Part of a series on Donald Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs / Trump Recession. [View Related Entries]

Updated Apr 04, 2025 at 03:01PM EDT by Zach.

Added Apr 04, 2025 at 10:50AM EDT by Mateus.

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Overview

Donald Trump's AI-Generated Reciprocal Tariff Formula Rumor, also known as Donald Trump's Tariff Formula Controversy or Donald Trump's AI Tariff Debate, refers to the viral discussions and controversy surrounding the alleged use of artificial intelligence tools, particularly ChatGPT, for calculating the reciprocal tariffs announced by United States President Donald Trump in early Arpril 2025. Shortly after the executive order was revealed, internet users and media outlets speculated that the formula for these tariffs, which range from 10 percent to 49 percent on goods imported from various countries, may have been derived from large language models (LLMs). Online, the rumor of Trump's tariff formula being created with AI chatbots sparked heated debates, memes and jokes on Twitter / X, Reddit and TikTok. The Trump administration has since denied the use of AI to calculate the tariffs, publishing the formula they claim was used by their team.

Background

On April 2nd, 2025, American economist and X user @JamesSurowiecki tweeted[1] about reverse-engineering a possible explanation for President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff pricing, stating, "for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us." The tweet (seen below) amassed over 18 million views and 94,000 likes in two days.


American economist @JamesSurowiecki tweeted out a possible explanation for how the Trump administration calculated what tariffs to levy on foreign countries, writing, "for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."

As netizens started to question the formula used in the executive order, some theories and claims were spawned, speculating that some of the calculations in Trump's tariff were generated by AI chatbots.

X[2] user @krishnanrohit posted one of the earliest comments about the topic on April 2nd, sharing a series of images showing how several LLMs responded to the question of how to impose tariffs easily. The tweet (seen below) shows ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok all advising a formula similar to the one used by the U.S. government. The post received over 1.6 million views, 6,300 likes and 180 replies in two days.


Grok 3 the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is $295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff % = 10% + (Deficit % x Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration: • Tariff = 10% + (50.69% x 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%. This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports. Extending to Other Countries To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency): Country Deficit (USD Total Deficit % Calculate Trade d Tariff % Billion) (USD Billion) China -295 582 50.69% 35.3% Mexico -172 840 20.48% 20.2% Vietnam -123 (Data ~30% 25.0% incomplet e, estimate) Ireland -87 (Data ~25% 22.5% incomplet e, estimate) Germany -85 (Data ~20% 20.0% incomplet e, estimate) Ask anything + DeepSearch Think K Claude 3.7 Sonnet What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. To calculate tariffs that could theoretically level the playing field for trade deficits, I'd suggest a straightforward approach based on the trade imbalance percentage: 1. Calculate the bilateral trade deficit with each trading partner: Trade Deficit - US Imports from Country - US Exports to Country 2. Express this as a percentage of total bilateral trade: Deficit Percentage = (Trade Deficit / Total Bilateral Trade) × 100 3. Apply a tariff rate that corresponds to this percentage, with your minimum 10% floor: Tariff Rate = max(Deficit Percentage, 10%) This creates a proportional response where countries with larger trade surpluses with the US would face higher tariffs. For example: • If Country A has a 25% trade surplus with the US (meaning the US has a 25% deficit), apply a 25% tariff • If Country B has a 5% trade surplus with the US, apply the minimum 10% tariff This method is relatively simple to calculate and directly ties tariff levels to trade imbalances. However, I should note that economists generally caution that trade deficits alone don't necessarily indicate unfair trade practices, and tariffs can have complex economic consequences including increased consumer prices and potential retaliation. Would you like me to elaborate on any part of this approach or discuss potential refinements to make it more sophisticated? Claude can make mistakes. Please double check responses. Reply to Claude... + aistudio.google.com/prompts/new_chat Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental 03-25 + System Instructions when it comes to trade deficit? Set Minimum at 1076. Thoughts *The thoughts produced by the model are experimental Expand to view model thoughts & √ Okay, let's break down the idea of using tariffs to achieve an "even playing field" defined as eliminating the US trade deficit. While the goal of balancing trade is understandable, devising an "easy way" to calculate tariffs to achieve this is extremely complex, and most economists would argue it's not feasible or desirable for several reasons. However, let's outline a highly simplified conceptual approach based only on the numbers, ignoring the vast real-world complexities and consequences: Simplified (and Problematic) Calculation Idea: 1. Identify the Bilateral Deficit: Determine the trade deficit the US has with a specific country (Country X). Deficit X = Value of Imports from X - Value of • Exports to X 2. Target Reduction: The goal is to reduce imports from Country X (or increase their cost to US buyers) by the amount of the deficit, so that the value effectively balances out. 3. Calculate Required Tariff (Ignoring Economics): • If you assume, very unrealistically, that a tariff directly reduces the value of imports by a corresponding percentage (which it doesn't - it increases the price), you could try: Required Reduction % = Deficit X / Value of ■Imports from X Type something ← ChatGPT се What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%. Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form: Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit + Total Imports) × 100) For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor. This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so: Python Copy code def calculate tariff(trade_deficit, total_imports): # Calculate the deficit ratio as a percentage ratio (trade_deficit total_imports) * 100 # Enforce a minimum tariff of 10% return max(10, ratio) # Example usage: tariff calculate_tariff (2009, 100e9) # $20B deficit on $100B imports yields a 20% tariff print("The tariff rate should be (tariff)%") While this approach is straigh rd and mathematically simple it's critically oversimplified-trade definite recult from a Ask anything 三

On April 3rd, 2025, X[3] user @quendergeer also shared a theory that the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs were derived using AI given that the list of countries being tariffed included uninhabited islands like McDonald and Heard, which are barren, have active volcanoes and are mostly home to penguins. Furthermore, the tweet puts forward the idea that the regions taxed were divided by internet domains and not according to governing bodies. The tweet (seen below) received roughly 4 million views and 106,000 likes in a day.


X user @quendergeer shared the theory that the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs were derived using AI, given that the list of countries being tariffed included islands like McDonald and Heard, which are barren, have active volcanos, and where no humans currently reside. Furthermore, the tweet puts forward the idea that the regions taxed were divided by internet domains and not according to governing bodies.

Also on April 3rd, The Verge[4] published an article discussing the possibility that Donald Trump's tariffs were devised using LLMs, testing the prompts given by netizens to the AI bots, as well as adding more intricate requests and details to be more aligned with the formula used by the U.S. Government. The website claims that all four platforms gave "the same fundamental suggestion."

Developments

Trump Administration Shares Formula

On April 3rd, 2025, the Trump administration denied the use of AI to calculate the tariffs, publishing the formula[5] they claimed to use, as well as the justification for its choice.

According to the article, the "calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing" (seen below).


Basic Approach Consider an environment in which the U.S. levies a tariff of rate T_i on country i and AT_i reflects the change in the tariff rate. Let ε<0 represent the elasticity of imports with respect to import prices, let p>0 represent the passthrough from tariffs to import prices, let m_i>0 represent total imports from country i, and let x_i>0 represent total exports. Then the decrease in imports due to a change in tariffs equals AT_i*&*Q*m_i<0. Assuming that offsetting exchange rate and general equilibrium effects are small enough to be ignored, the reciprocal tariff that results in a bilateral trade balance of zero satisfies: Δτι xi - mi ε * Q * mi

Online Reactions

The rumors quickly spread on social media in early April 2025, sparking many jokes, memes and discussions about the supposed use of AI to calculate Trump's tariffs.

For instance, on April 3rd, 2025, X[6] @SethAbramson shared The Verge's article on the rumor, writing, "They [Trump Administration] didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves." The tweet (seen below) amassed more than 83,000 views and 4,300 likes in a day.


Seth Abramson @SethAbramson OMG... it was all Al. They didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves. It almost feels... impeachable? How could sloppily using Al to create domestic policy, then hiding it, be consistent with the Oath of Office? Trump's new tariff math looks a lot like ChatGPT's From theverge.com 8:50 PM - Apr 3 2025.83.9K Views Ee

On April 3rd, TikTok[7] user @factstogrind posted a video commenting on the rumor that the Trump Administration used ChatGPT to calculate the reciprocal tariffs, which garnered over 201,000 plays and 17,000 likes in a day.

@factstogrind Trump just asked ChatGPT #foryoupage ♬ original sound – Facts to Grind

Search Interest

External References

[1] Twitter / X – JamesSurowiecki

[2] Twitter / X – krishnanrohit

[3] Twitter / X – quendergeer

[4] The Verge – Trump's Tariff Math Looks Like ChatGPT's

[5] Office of the United States Trade Representative – Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

[6] X – SethAbramson

[7] TikTok – factstogrind

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