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He Doesn't Have The Faintest Idea How To Turn The Keys is a quote and catchphrase from United States election forecaster Allan Lichtman deriding rival forecaster Nate Silver after Silver argued that Lichtman's signature "13 Keys" system of forecasting supports a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election when Lichtman argued it supported a victory for Kamala Harris. Lichtman fired back by insulting Silver and saying he did not understand the "13 Keys" system. The phrase "He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys" then became a meme on Twitter / X in the weeks following their spat.

Origin

In early September 2024, election forecaster Allan Lichtman released his prediction that Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would win the 2024 United States Presidential Election.[1] The prediction is based on his "13 Keys to the White House" model, which had accurately called nine of the previous 10 presidential elections. The "keys" in Lichtman's model are 13 true or false statements, and if six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is forecasted to lose the election.

The model has drawn criticism for being subjective, including from famed data-driven forecaster Nate Silver, whose own model at the time suggested Trump to be the favorite. After Lichtman published his forecast, Silver called the 13 Keys system it "totally arbitrary." He also said that his analysis of the election through Lichtman's model suggested a Trump victory.

On September 27th, 2024, Lichtman[2] fired back at Silver, writing, "Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s re-election. He’ll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys." The post gained over 4,600 retweets and 29,000 likes in one month.

Allan Lichtman @Allan Lichtman Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He's not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama's re- election. He'll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys. 3:22 PM Sep 27, 2024

Spread

Over the following month, the phrase "he doesn't know how to turn the keys" became a joke on Twitter, as users found the spat between the two popular forecasters amusing. For example, on October 31st, 2024, Twitter user @LinkofSunshine[3] posted the quote with the Gunna Writing Fire format, gaining over 390 retweets and 12,000 likes in six days.

Basil ♥D @LinkofSunshine He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys ...

On November 2nd, Twitter user @SwannMarcus89[4] joked that social media users should vote for Harris because it would prove Nate Silver "had no idea how to turn the keys," gaining over 890 retweets and 14,000 likes in three days.

Swann Marcus @Swann Marcus89 We should all want Harris to win in order to drive Nate Silver absolutely insane when Alan Lichtman declares that this is proof he was right that Silver had no idea how to turn the keys Allan Lichtman @Allan Lichtman • Nov 2 After long predicting a Trump win, other models are belatedly starting to fall in line with The Keys to the White House. Predictit & 538 now have a dead heat and the Economist has Harris ahead at 52%. 12:37 PM Nov 2, 2024

The phrase led to other memes as it continued to spread in early November 2024. For example, on November 4th, Twitter user @ettingermentum[5] posted an image of literal keys, writing, "Feel like the white Allan Lichtman the way I turn the keys," gaining over 1,500 likes in one day.

ettingermentum @ettingermentum Feel like the white Allan Lichtman the way I turn the keys B PANIC AUTOMOBILI ORGH

Various Examples

the hot dam historian @hotdamhistorian i whisper "no conception of how to turn the keys" at myself whenever i f--- up now • Himbo President @himbopresident 21h Replying to @ettingermentum the "no conception of how to turn the keys" tweet has earned him and his complete horseshit theory my undying respect 2:40 PM Nov 4, 2024
VOTE KAMALA @TheLastJimzy he was cooking with gas on this one "doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys" like god damn Allan you tell that man 11:55 PM Oct 31, 2024 • ...

Aleph @woke8yearold He has no idea how to turn the keys. He's a bald fraud trying to grift cryptobros 2024 SHWA
Djinn & Tonic @HegelwCrmCheese "Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys." Aes viripes Celestill Cinis dere 8:12 AM Nov 3, 2024
"He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys.

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He Doesn't Have The Faintest Idea How To Turn The Keys meme depicting Nate silver and allan lichtman feuding over keys.

He Doesn't Have The Faintest Idea How To Turn The Keys

Part of a series on Nate Silver. [View Related Entries]

Updated Nov 05, 2024 at 01:21PM EST by Zach.

Added Nov 05, 2024 at 10:56AM EST by Adam.

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About

He Doesn't Have The Faintest Idea How To Turn The Keys is a quote and catchphrase from United States election forecaster Allan Lichtman deriding rival forecaster Nate Silver after Silver argued that Lichtman's signature "13 Keys" system of forecasting supports a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election when Lichtman argued it supported a victory for Kamala Harris. Lichtman fired back by insulting Silver and saying he did not understand the "13 Keys" system. The phrase "He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys" then became a meme on Twitter / X in the weeks following their spat.

Origin

In early September 2024, election forecaster Allan Lichtman released his prediction that Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would win the 2024 United States Presidential Election.[1] The prediction is based on his "13 Keys to the White House" model, which had accurately called nine of the previous 10 presidential elections. The "keys" in Lichtman's model are 13 true or false statements, and if six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is forecasted to lose the election.

The model has drawn criticism for being subjective, including from famed data-driven forecaster Nate Silver, whose own model at the time suggested Trump to be the favorite. After Lichtman published his forecast, Silver called the 13 Keys system it "totally arbitrary." He also said that his analysis of the election through Lichtman's model suggested a Trump victory.

On September 27th, 2024, Lichtman[2] fired back at Silver, writing, "Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s re-election. He’ll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys." The post gained over 4,600 retweets and 29,000 likes in one month.


Allan Lichtman @Allan Lichtman Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He's not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama's re- election. He'll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys. 3:22 PM Sep 27, 2024

Spread

Over the following month, the phrase "he doesn't know how to turn the keys" became a joke on Twitter, as users found the spat between the two popular forecasters amusing. For example, on October 31st, 2024, Twitter user @LinkofSunshine[3] posted the quote with the Gunna Writing Fire format, gaining over 390 retweets and 12,000 likes in six days.


Basil ♥D @LinkofSunshine He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys ...

On November 2nd, Twitter user @SwannMarcus89[4] joked that social media users should vote for Harris because it would prove Nate Silver "had no idea how to turn the keys," gaining over 890 retweets and 14,000 likes in three days.


Swann Marcus @Swann Marcus89 We should all want Harris to win in order to drive Nate Silver absolutely insane when Alan Lichtman declares that this is proof he was right that Silver had no idea how to turn the keys Allan Lichtman @Allan Lichtman • Nov 2 After long predicting a Trump win, other models are belatedly starting to fall in line with The Keys to the White House. Predictit & 538 now have a dead heat and the Economist has Harris ahead at 52%. 12:37 PM Nov 2, 2024

The phrase led to other memes as it continued to spread in early November 2024. For example, on November 4th, Twitter user @ettingermentum[5] posted an image of literal keys, writing, "Feel like the white Allan Lichtman the way I turn the keys," gaining over 1,500 likes in one day.


ettingermentum @ettingermentum Feel like the white Allan Lichtman the way I turn the keys B PANIC AUTOMOBILI ORGH

Various Examples


the hot dam historian @hotdamhistorian i whisper "no conception of how to turn the keys" at myself whenever i f--- up now • Himbo President @himbopresident 21h Replying to @ettingermentum the "no conception of how to turn the keys" tweet has earned him and his complete horseshit theory my undying respect 2:40 PM Nov 4, 2024 VOTE KAMALA @TheLastJimzy he was cooking with gas on this one "doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys" like god damn Allan you tell that man 11:55 PM Oct 31, 2024 • ...

Aleph @woke8yearold He has no idea how to turn the keys. He's a bald fraud trying to grift cryptobros 2024 SHWA Djinn & Tonic @HegelwCrmCheese "Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys." Aes viripes Celestill Cinis dere 8:12 AM Nov 3, 2024 "He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys.

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