About

He Doesn't Have The Faintest Idea How To Turn The Keys is a quote and catchphrase from United States election forecaster Allan Lichtman deriding rival forecaster Nate Silver after Silver argued that Lichtman's signature "13 Keys" system of forecasting supports a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election when Lichtman argued it supported a victory for Kamala Harris. Lichtman fired back by insulting Silver and saying he did not understand the "13 Keys" system. The phrase "He doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys" then became a meme on Twitter / X in the weeks following their spat.

Origin

In early September 2024, election forecaster Allan Lichtman released his prediction that Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would win the 2024 United States Presidential Election.^[1] The prediction is based on his "13 Keys to the White House" model, which had accurately called nine of the previous 10 presidential elections. The "keys" in Lichtman's model are 13 true or false statements, and if six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is forecasted to lose the election.

The model has drawn criticism for being subjective, including from famed data-driven forecaster Nate Silver, whose own model at the time suggested Trump to be the favorite. After Lichtman published his forecast, Silver called the 13 Keys system it "totally arbitrary." He also said that his analysis of the election through Lichtman's model suggested a Trump victory.

On September 27th, 2024, Lichtman^[2] fired back at Silver, writing, "Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s re-election. He’ll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys." The post gained over 4,600 retweets and 29,000 likes in one month.

Spread

Over the following month, the phrase "he doesn't know how to turn the keys" became a joke on Twitter, as users found the spat between the two popular forecasters amusing. For example, on October 31st, 2024, Twitter user @LinkofSunshine^[3] posted the quote with the Gunna Writing Fire format, gaining over 390 retweets and 12,000 likes in six days.

On November 2nd, Twitter user @SwannMarcus89^[4] joked that social media users should vote for Harris because it would prove Nate Silver "had no idea how to turn the keys," gaining over 890 retweets and 14,000 likes in three days.

The phrase led to other memes as it continued to spread in early November 2024. For example, on November 4th, Twitter user @ettingermentum^[5] posted an image of literal keys, writing, "Feel like the white Allan Lichtman the way I turn the keys," gaining over 1,500 likes in one day.

Various Examples

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External References