But the Ukranians are winning? The analogy would be more apt if the Russians tried to drunkenly take off their own belt and tripped over their own pants.

Depends on what you consider winning.

If winning means the collapse of Russia as a world superpower, than yes, they are winning.

If winning means the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine…well, that remains to be seen.

If Ukraine can keep the war going until April.

If Ukraine doesn't capitulate if Kyiv falls and fights to the end.

If Russia starts bombing NATO and Western supply convoys to Ukraine like they've started threatening to.

If the reinforcements they've been training can counter-attack in time.

Then they could potentially win this.

All intelligence sources that I could get a look at seem to indicate that the Russians are pulling back troops from the Southern flank and are amassing for a large offensive against Kiev.

At this point, they just appear to be doing another Chechnya, where they take the capital, declare they've won (despite 80% of the country still being under enemy control) and then go home until the people in charge decide the Russians aren't bribing them enough for their complacency anymore.