Forums / Discussion / General

Since we all be living under rocks. . .or I am. . .with our magical Wi-Fi fairies it is safe to say that Ukraine is in deep shit. Russian troops are invading in the early spring, like a bear waking up from hibernation.

Meanwhile, in the Halls of Freedom, our gracious and greatly intelligent leaders are talking about setting up a meeting to talk to themselves about maybe sending a envoy to Russian to convince Putin to possibly not send troops and possible do possible thing that might (but most likely won't) work to maybe threaten him with possible temporary sanctions. . .

So what you all think of the shit going down in Ukraine and what you all think is going to happen?

Mandatory Personal Opinion;

Since the UN is literally weaker then a minority group of rebels in Rwanda, I doubt by the time action is actually taken this shit just blows over for Controversy 2.0. Politically, I doubt Russia will become a rouge state to simple just annex Ukraine. Ukraine also had some bad blood with the Soviet Union, so the heavy resistance to a 'reformed Russia' is going to be considerable or at least noteworthy.

I am also wondering why my country, the Glorious Michigan United States, has to be involved in this conflict. One would think this fell specifically on the european powers since you know. . .the entire purpose of Europe so far has been to make sure Russia didn't get a warm water port or something. Our beef has been tied up in the Middle East and unless the Soviet Union became super charged and reborn, then this would be concerning. I know we have the title of 'Superpower', but this conflict is just a political land mine waiting to happen.

I am also wondering why my country, the Glorious Michigan United States, has to be involved in this conflict.

Because Murica.

Seriously though, I guess I was a fool to think we learned our lesson from Iraq.

I've been following the situation closely and I support the whole Euromaidan thing, but I definitely think we need to stay out. If European countries want to get involved, then that's fine. It's their back yard. But we really don't have any business sticking our nose over there, just like we didn't have any business getting involved in Syria. We should worry about fixing our own problems here at home rather than starting new wars. And as far as what's going to happen, I don't know. The elections this May will be pivotal. Either Russia will back off when a new government is established, or the Ukraine could split, be it peacefully or in war.

Cold War 2.0 which leads to World War III which leads to Fallout and Metro 2033.

I wonder plastic bottle caps can count as currency

Iraq is understandable, a dangerous enemy and rouge state which had been recently fought and had to be put down if a purging of terror factions was to be a stable one, and reforming the nation into a self-defending ally was smart. (If European and American spy agencies had been more competent of course, we would have known the numbers of WMD arsenals and toxic weapons Saddam had piled up, Iraq would have become a more minor target).

My only qualm with Ukraine and getting involved is it's history with Russia and just how trivial defending it would be, war or no war. Ukraine had not proven to be a threat to the United States and when given a chance it would damage Russia internally due to how much of a hot spot it is, since Slavs hate each other slightly as much as they hate the Turks.

Way I see it, Russia's only interest in this is Crimea. If they get that, the Russian Government will probably ease off.

The reason the US should get involved is because Ukraine is an important location, strategically, and has oil pipelines out the wazoo. Putin wants Crimea because it's an important port and has a major oil line in it (IIRC), making it a very important military resource.

Ukraine being taken over by Russia would have some fairly long-reaching effects on the global market and geopolitics in Europe.

As for the possibility of WW3, I only see a few ways it could happen:

1.) Russia DOES take over all of Ukraine and has to engage in ground warfare, which could prompt the EU to assist Ukraine due to their strategic importance

2.) Russia occupies all of Ukraine and does some dickwaving with tanks and artillery along the western border. Someone panics or gets some miscommunication, fires a shot at one side, and it's on.

US intervention is already out stretched, and often met with duel personalities from the Europeans before, and that alone should be a reason not to get involved.

Every time the United States got involved in a european conflict, we were met with harsh after effect criticism and internal conflict from our own citizens which causes more problems then they are worth, with colleges being unreasonably pacifist and just plain old assholes.

Russia's only real threat was when in the Cold War, their aggressive dictatorship threatened european sovereignty and their aggressive espionage resulted in constant and serious problem in a global theater. The Russian Federation had died when the Russian People in disgust overthrew the Soviet Union and their vassals revolted. Now that Russia is recuperating, the Europeans want us to deal with the problem they know perfectly well they can deal with themselves, and I have no doubt as soon as we go into a conflict they will harshly criticize us for it as 'warmongers'.

Also as said, our forces are already stretched out, and that is fighting the equivalent of factions within disabled countries, and fighting a highly advanced country with 3 million strong (compared to our. . .2 million). The only reason Russia had expanded before was to gain access to a warm water port, and I say let them or let the European powers actually do something for once and pull their combined and certainly professional armed forces to port block the Russians.

>Iraq is understandable

They never found those WMDs (if they existed at all) and Osama Bin Laden was in another castle. Besides, those terrorists can jump country borders at will, so taking down the head of the country only created a power vacuum allowing Islamic militants to do as they please until the US pumped more troops.

On Topic, no country wants to risk sending troops and escalating the situation. At most, everyone's waiting for Russia's next move so they will take the blame.

((I hate to pump a sub topic into this, but they did find WMDs, just not in larger quantities. They found toxic weaponry and Yellow Cake, just in very large volumes. Also, we had garrisons in the country. . .or at least did. . .to prevent the factions from gaining that power.))

But yes, back to topic.

I never understood this blame shit, it's kind of a afterthought in most wars.

Well Chickenhound, doesn't America interfere in EVERY conflict in the world?

It was kind of predestined that our country would butt in.

Crimea is pretty much Russia's entire Naval access to the west. They had treaties that let Russia station it's assets in Crimea's ports and facilities, but the upheaval in Ukraine makes those treaties void, so it's of reasonable understanding that Russia would want this particular location.
Whether or not invasion is reasonable… that's more questionable.

it is safe to say that Ukraine is in deep shit. Russian troops are invading in the early spring, like a bear waking up from hibernation.

Well, I guess it's true what are saying about Russia:

My only hope, to make it as short as possible, is that the fighting ends quickly and a new (and hopefully not corrupt) government is formed, or at least dramatically reformed. Relations with Ukraine and Russia and throughout history have been… complicated.

Americans had to intervene in many conflicts in the Cold War, and many of those conflicts were amplified due to the espionage and shadow wars between us and the Soviet Union. In fact, the War on Terror is a extension of those conflicts since we supplied supplies and training to Pakistan tribes whom in turn for helping them defend their country from Soviet Invasion, decided to use their new weapons and training against us.

Most of our conflicts had been so far about trade, but we are involved in many formal conflicts like the Invasion of Kuwait from Iraq, but many Informal conflicts like the civil wars in most African states had been generally left alone because. . .well. . .Africa is a shit hole and their governments we could ally with are unstable as fuck.

Slavic countries on the other hands is a bit more complex. I know the United States got involved in the Serbian conflicts and we bombed the shit out of them because of genocide the serbs were instigating, but Ukraine is a bit more of a shit storm, a political land mine. If we intervene we piss off Russia. . . .which has a experienced and larger army then us. Also, our european 'allies' of course I doubt will come to our aid if called, since you know. . . .fucking 'we of neutral' shit they will probably pull out of their ass hats because they think so lowly of the United States.

I can agree on the 'we of neutral' thing considering the leaked British government document stating "we will take no actions." No matter how many threats of sanctions the foreign minister makes, it has little to no weight because of that document.

All Obama has to do is threaten to invoke the "Uniting for Peace" resolution (Resolution 377) and Russia would cave. For those who don't know, Resolution 377 allows the UN General Assembly to assume direct control over the Security Council--effectively overriding any veto. Why it's only ever invoked against Israel or some shit in Africa, I'll never know.

I guess everyone's too scared to start using it, since it would give the Third World tremendous power internationally (the Non-Aligned Movement holds a super-majority in the GA) and would effectively make the Security Council nothing more than a temporary roadblock.

What we really have to be worried about is Poland and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia) which all border Russia and are all members of NATO. Of particular concern is Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania--and a strategically important Russian asset due to it being a port. Sound familiar? If Russia decided it needed to "reinforce" it's Baltic port and started building up the military there, we could see the Great Happening finally happen.

Also, have some Godwin's Law

February, 1936: Nazi Germany hosts the 1936 Winter Games in the small, relatively unknown town of Garmisch-Partenkirchen.

March, 1936: German troops march into the Rhineland and occupy it, in violation of the Treaty of Versailles. Seen as the first step toward WW2.

February, 2014: Russia hosts the 2014 Winter Games in the small, relatively unknown city of Sochi.

March, 2014: Russian troops march into Crimea and occupy it, in violation of the Budapest Memorandum. First step toward WW3?

You gotta love /pol/ and their happening watch.

The UN i am really doubting is going to be much help. They might as well be called League of Nations 2.0. When the very thing they were suppose to prevent (genocidal shit) was being instigated and amplified in Rwanda, their first course of action could be summed up in this list;

1) Stand perfectly still near city
2) Watch people get butchered in city
3) Observe angry mob ascending on you
4) Get kidnapped, an if you shoot weapons you are breaking rules.
5) Die of shamfur dispriary!

I mean, if you can't even handle a militia and a army so incompetent that 10% minority being massacred rebel force in a deeper jungle could literally drive both forces out of a tiny little country like Rwanda, I have extreme doubts anything the UN does would be beneficial.

I wouldn't be so cynical about the UN if the entire assembly wasn't made of the world most incompetent decision on the face of the earth, a organization so useless politically that only idiots ever have seemed to actually consider their edicts to be enforceable. All the UN seems to be able to do is annoy Israel and send nasty letters. If they ever did something noteworthy like actually pull their heads out of their gooey assholes, I could at least tolerate their shit.

/un rant over/

Back on topic with Russia.

That is kind of interesting and also kind of a sad story for Russia. They never seem to find a warm water port through Europe, since the British and French tried to stop them from gaining a warm water port when they allied with the Ottomans. Russia definitely has the manpower to take these region, but I don't think they have the political might to actually do the same thing in the Baltic region or any real reasons.

I am uncertain what kind of political alliances Russia has with the world. I know they are not particularly popular with their former vassals and territories, but if Russia does decide to make do with their great Happenings, it would have to be through extremely careful espionage or convince Slavs that killing each other because of pride is not the best way to beat back western europeans and their evil kebab loving ways.

May it be noted that the Winter Games are cursed.

Obviously the situation in Crimea and Ukraine in general is too complicated for most people to rationally have a strong opinion on it, but that ain't gonna stop most people, now will it? :-)

"I think this is probably a sign of end times. And I'm an atheist." -Jason Bournne, commenter on Mediaite

So you reject every theistic religion, but still believe in the Christian Apocalypse? Right then…

"Vladimir Putin believes in Russia. He believes in Russia’s destiny, its mission. Obama does not believe in American exceptionalism. He does not believe in this country." -Ralph Peters, Fox 'News' analyst

That's right, in order to 'believe' in his country and 'American exceptionalism', Obama has to needlessly get involve in and escalate a conflict that doesn't really affect the US.

"It is US who deviding Ukraine" -Irina Juju, commenter on CNN.com

Yes, a country half a world away is political 'deviding' Ukraine.

Sorry that I don't have much to add to this discussion, but like I said before, this is a complicated situation, all I can definitively say is that I'm against Russia's invasion and occupation of Crimea. This isn't America's fight, nor is it Russia's.

I realize there's a lot of reasons why America should stay as far away from this insanity as possible, but Russia's not pulling out and most of the other nations who could help seem content with doing little more than expressing their DEEP CONCERN. I know it's only been a couple days since the occupation but It's gotta be terrifying for the Ukrainians who aren't pro-Russia. The nation as a whole has been through enough already. I really feel for them.

People are asking something to be done from the US, but you know what will happen if they try. I quote this article

"Americans and Europeans are no more anxious to fight over Ukraine than over Syria -- and Putin knows it."

Read more: What's Happening in Ukraine | TIME.com http://ideas.time.com/2014/02/19/what-you-should-know-about-ukraine/#ixzz2v5dsQ3Ko

It will be Syria all over again. The affected nation will cry out for the west to take action, but the moment the west even thinks about it, half the planet will be skinning the west alive for merely suggesting the idea with even half of the US itself shouting "not our fight". And once the west finally decides to do something, even the affected nation itself will condemn the action and demand they be left to handle it themselves.

Lets face it. As terrible as this situation is, the resources of the US and UN is stretched too thin and dry to deal with it. Both the US and the UN have too many internal problems to deal with anything external. And the last time the US tried to help anyone, the world chewed off its hand.

This is going to be an issue that will be left for the Ukrainians to sort out. From what I am reading, the two sides in Ukraine (the euro side and the russian side) have been fighting against each other for some time against a leadership that keeps blocking better international sanctions. A fight that has been exasperated over recent political unrest draconian enforcement. And Putins main intention here is to secure their naval base in Crimea until the Ukraine turmoil simmers down…even though their very presence seems to make matter worse…

Either way, the cause and current situation doesn't really concern the America's

The rest of the world may condemn Russia's actions but it looks like Russia is going to get what it wants…and may be best left to have what it wants (that is: security of their Ukrainian assets)…until the Ukraine can diplomacy their way out of this.

I very much doubt this will lead to WW3. Despite what lots of cold-war-fetishists are saying, Russia doesn't have much more motive in this conflict that simply keeping their Ukrainain naval bases free of angry mobs

All Ukraine needs to do is reach a political agreement and Putin will likely put his pistol back in his holster. But even if the Ukraine go to all out war, the most likely outcome is that Russia will steamroll the Ukraine and everyone else will just watch. Any attempt to stop them may result in WW3…but you know not a single president in any nation has the balls to do that.

[UPDATE]

I read a little bit deeper

Ukranians themselves are saying that this has nothing to do with tensions between east and west Ukranians. That's an outdated stance.

Rather the oubreak of unrest in the Ukraine is the result of corruption of Yanukovitch's regime (It's always regimes, isn't it?). Ukrainians have been threatening Yanukovitch over his crimes which caused him to flee. This in turn prompted a response from Russia to quell any uprising as they apparently support and protect Yanukovitch as well as their military assets.

This makes me sympathise with the Ukrainians much more. Seems once again Russia is keeping the wrong people in power for the wrong reasons

Few questions answered here and here

Of course it didn't take long for Godwin's Law to invoked.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/05/report-clinton-compares-putins-ukraine-moves-to-hitler-and-nazi-germany/?hpt=hp_bn3

Can't we just declare we are all Hilter, since everyone is apparently hitler.

Crimea votes to join Russia

I wonder how this will go. If I'm not mistaken another pro-Russian part of Ukraine claimed it wanted to secede the other day as well.

I think I know what's wrong. You see, authorities will try to repress people both when there's a riot/war and during peacetime while protesters and others will stand up against the authorities only when police and soldiers are armed and ready.

Some more news

Crimea Referendum Results:
97% in favor of joining Russia
3% in favor of Crimea independence…and eventually joining Russia later.

The election took place while Crimea is still occupied by Russian troops.

"You see Ivan, if you place tank in front of voting booth, then they vote freely because they will not fear no kebab because tank guards their democracy."

Regarding Based Putins second link. on the Crimean vote to join russia..

It's hard to say if this is some kind of trick or if Crimea really did motion for this willingly. On one hand it all looks pretty dodgy. As the article points out; there's little evidence of the poll being moderated properly and at least one guy was caught double voting. Who knows what underhanded tactics could have been used

This article discusses how Putin wants a fully allied Asian continent and his dream hinges quite heavily on the Ukraine working with him rather than against him. So it wouldn't be past him to try any desperate measure to get Ukraine on his side. Even election rigging. We all know Putin is good at rigging elections

But on the other hand, if Crimeans didn't want this, not even a rigged election could hide that fact. Yet, there's surprisingly a lot less upheaval about this that I would expect. Crimeans seem awfully happy about this and if they are, well…up to them I guess.

It's not like there isn't a reason why Crimeans would support this. Consider how the Ukraine government isn't exactly ideal either. In fact, this whole conflict is the result of the critical failures by the Ukrainian leadership. I wouldn't put it past Crimean's to be so horribly disgruntled with the Ukraine that the more stable Russia will look like the greener pasture

And don't forget how many Crimeans are themselves Russian. They could consider Russia to be be a liberator at best or a lesser evil at worst

If the vote was free and fair….I would expect a 70% victory for the referendum to succeed.

Which makes you wonder why they saw the need to actually rig the election.

Who knows what Putin's thinking? In the aftermath of the protests in Ukraine, Russia could have insisted on a referendum of Crimea without having to take any real action. Crimea would have definitely been for it and Russia would've a legitimate argument for taking the region without Ukraine's approval. However, that's just me.

I heard Putin's speech today while faffing around the Internet. Basically he went on how Crimea has been historically Russian, how the West has wronged Russia in the past, and how the current leadership in Ukraine is illegitimate and full of nationalistic neo-nazis. Putin would have made some decent points if it weren't for the fact that they JUST INVADED UKRAINE. Oh cry me a river, Putin. By invading, the referendum's legitimacy, Chimea's history, Russia's past relationship with the West, Ukraine's current leadership, everything goes face-first out the window.

Technically, the forces in the Crimea have been there since the Soviet days. Even if we count the additional troops flown in since the crisis started, it's still legal as Russia and Ukraine have an agreement that allows Russia to place up to 30'000 troops in the Crimea (I believe the current numbers are 15'000).

As for your first point, it's impossible. The reason why Ukraine and the world say the referendum is illegal and unconstitutional? Because in order for it to be legal, Crimea needed the permission of every other state within the Ukraine to secede. Needless to say, Russia has to take action, there was no way it could retain the Crimea otherwise.

Mmmhmm, I see.

In other news, Ron Paul couldn't give a fuck.

Lots of oil goes through Crimea, so that's why it's a big deal.

Remember, oil is a big fucking deal. If you played Warcraft 2 you would know the importance of oil.

In meme related news, this is back.