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Politics General

Last posted Nov 19, 2024 at 05:12AM EST. Added Jan 01, 2017 at 06:26PM EST
18033 posts from 293 users

Kenetic Kups wrote:

Final predictions are Biden wins wisc and michigan, leading to him winning by two points

Looking at election data, this seems increasingly likely.

PA I consider a toss-up here – it all depends on the absentee ballots, which skew D, but could possibly not be enough.

This is a fucking balls-to-the-vise election we're in.

Last edited Nov 04, 2020 at 02:25PM EST

Kenetic Kups wrote:

Final predictions are Biden wins wisc and michigan, leading to him winning by two points

Someone oughta buy Kups a beer, or at least a furry porn commission, for this prediction. Wisconsin and Michigan have been called for Biden – with NV/AZ likely to be called for Biden once votes are in as well. Now, there is the whole recount business with WI, but recounts shouldn't be likely to change much considering the vote margin is ~20.5k.

Fuck the Electoral College, and fuck the winner-take-all system especially. The winner-take-all system pretty much ensures voters across the country are disenfranchised in both red and blue states.

Last edited Nov 04, 2020 at 04:54PM EST

Talkie Toaster wrote:

Someone oughta buy Kups a beer, or at least a furry porn commission, for this prediction. Wisconsin and Michigan have been called for Biden – with NV/AZ likely to be called for Biden once votes are in as well. Now, there is the whole recount business with WI, but recounts shouldn't be likely to change much considering the vote margin is ~20.5k.

Fuck the Electoral College, and fuck the winner-take-all system especially. The winner-take-all system pretty much ensures voters across the country are disenfranchised in both red and blue states.

Indeed
and I'll take the yiff

Last edited Nov 04, 2020 at 05:53PM EST

Pokejoseph64 wrote:

Honestly Biden’s 6 points away from the finish line, and Nevada has them, and he’s currently ahead there

I don’t think he’ll need Pennsylvania despite his constant campaigning there

I don’t think he’ll win it either the only swinger he may get is georgia
nevada really isn’t a swing state

Kenetic Kups wrote:

I don’t think he’ll win it either the only swinger he may get is georgia
nevada really isn’t a swing state

He is currently 1 percentage point from a tie in Georgia, and Trump isn't even above 50%.
In Georgia.

This could come down to the wire in both GA and PA, while Biden seems likely to claim both NV and AZ.

Mail-in ballots are the key to this, and Trump is trying to stop all those from being counted.

Last edited Nov 04, 2020 at 08:05PM EST

The Trump administration may have made a mistake mouthing off before having anything to claim with standing. One thing judges don't like are to be used as tools, so the "we're going to sue for… reasons" being blatantly without merit when he said it is going to screw him while arguing before state judges.

And what his campaign has come up with so far is hilariously suspect. They're claiming lack of access, whenever that's something the campaigns are supposed to hammer out with the states weeks ago. So that means they're going to have to ALSO argue against "you didn't have any complaints about this arrangement before"

Even if Biden wins. And I sort of hope he does.
The GOP has won trumendously.
The Presidency isn't everything nor should it be.
A Biden win means that the next 4 years is going to be political gridlock, at worst, and a continuation of the same national and international polciies that has beeen begun by the Trump administration. With little, very little changes.

Predictions:
Iran may concede to some extra-ordinary demands. i.e. Recognition of Israel, stopping it's funding and support of Hezbolla, and Iraqi insurgency – a withdrawal from Syria (which everyone kind of wants). Soleimani's death spells the end of the old regime. If Trump wins the concessions may be larger. Bit if Biden wins, there will still be concessions, not as deep.
China situation will remain the same. May be slightly slower animosity – but there has been a fundamental shift in US policy in the Pacific. India will continue to become the US's biggest ally in the region.
Green New Deal is dead.
Any major tax overhaul is dead.
Ban on any fossil fuel energy is dead.
80% of what was "promised" by the Democrats is going to be contested by the GOP hardcore.
This may be the last election that has predominately baby boomers running for office.
The Democrats may have to come to terms of their own party's fault in creating the Trump symptom.
The Republicans would be forced to embrace the demographic changes that have, suprisingly, come to their favor:a massive increase in minority voting.

We're seeing decades old state-voter patterns radically changing. A guarantee red/blue divide is merging into purple. This means better representation, better politics, better engagement.
We're seeing the largest voter turn out, total engagement of the population in the political arena.

I've taken the white pill.
The chaos is temporary, but necessary.
In the end we come out stronger. I'm super stoked for the next 4 years.

Chewybunny wrote:

Even if Biden wins. And I sort of hope he does.
The GOP has won trumendously.
The Presidency isn't everything nor should it be.
A Biden win means that the next 4 years is going to be political gridlock, at worst, and a continuation of the same national and international polciies that has beeen begun by the Trump administration. With little, very little changes.

Predictions:
Iran may concede to some extra-ordinary demands. i.e. Recognition of Israel, stopping it's funding and support of Hezbolla, and Iraqi insurgency – a withdrawal from Syria (which everyone kind of wants). Soleimani's death spells the end of the old regime. If Trump wins the concessions may be larger. Bit if Biden wins, there will still be concessions, not as deep.
China situation will remain the same. May be slightly slower animosity – but there has been a fundamental shift in US policy in the Pacific. India will continue to become the US's biggest ally in the region.
Green New Deal is dead.
Any major tax overhaul is dead.
Ban on any fossil fuel energy is dead.
80% of what was "promised" by the Democrats is going to be contested by the GOP hardcore.
This may be the last election that has predominately baby boomers running for office.
The Democrats may have to come to terms of their own party's fault in creating the Trump symptom.
The Republicans would be forced to embrace the demographic changes that have, suprisingly, come to their favor:a massive increase in minority voting.

We're seeing decades old state-voter patterns radically changing. A guarantee red/blue divide is merging into purple. This means better representation, better politics, better engagement.
We're seeing the largest voter turn out, total engagement of the population in the political arena.

I've taken the white pill.
The chaos is temporary, but necessary.
In the end we come out stronger. I'm super stoked for the next 4 years.

You're assuming that McConnell won't cripple a Biden administration for 4 years by refusing to allow appointees by Biden to progress through a Senate confirmation.

Chewybunny wrote:

Even if Biden wins. And I sort of hope he does.
The GOP has won trumendously.
The Presidency isn't everything nor should it be.
A Biden win means that the next 4 years is going to be political gridlock, at worst, and a continuation of the same national and international polciies that has beeen begun by the Trump administration. With little, very little changes.

Predictions:
Iran may concede to some extra-ordinary demands. i.e. Recognition of Israel, stopping it's funding and support of Hezbolla, and Iraqi insurgency – a withdrawal from Syria (which everyone kind of wants). Soleimani's death spells the end of the old regime. If Trump wins the concessions may be larger. Bit if Biden wins, there will still be concessions, not as deep.
China situation will remain the same. May be slightly slower animosity – but there has been a fundamental shift in US policy in the Pacific. India will continue to become the US's biggest ally in the region.
Green New Deal is dead.
Any major tax overhaul is dead.
Ban on any fossil fuel energy is dead.
80% of what was "promised" by the Democrats is going to be contested by the GOP hardcore.
This may be the last election that has predominately baby boomers running for office.
The Democrats may have to come to terms of their own party's fault in creating the Trump symptom.
The Republicans would be forced to embrace the demographic changes that have, suprisingly, come to their favor:a massive increase in minority voting.

We're seeing decades old state-voter patterns radically changing. A guarantee red/blue divide is merging into purple. This means better representation, better politics, better engagement.
We're seeing the largest voter turn out, total engagement of the population in the political arena.

I've taken the white pill.
The chaos is temporary, but necessary.
In the end we come out stronger. I'm super stoked for the next 4 years.

I feel like I should mention, this is the sort of thing that would have gotten me to vote for Biden.

NO! wrote:

Harry Potter (Biden) is about to kill Voldemort (Trump)

This is what we have been waiting for!!

It's really more like JC Denton killing Bob Page and joining the Illuminati, rather than doing the cool thing and merging with Helios.

Greyblades wrote:

Firstly I'm British, not american.

Secondly, when did the US pledge to support Kurdish independance? Answer: They did not. The only betrayal is between your preconceptions and hard reality. Not thinking ignorance and arrogance virtues did not make you immune to them, evidently.

Fighting a mutual enemy does not a defensive pact make; ISIS hasnt regrouped, they have no cities, no towns, no bases; they dont even have any resource fields anymore. ISIS is down and out; reduced to bands in caves and formless insurgency, hiding from russian and american airstrikes.

America supported the Kurds to fight ISIS and once ISIS was out of the picture the support ended. Frankly so should have the american presence altogether, the desire to remain is the true outrage. Russian or Syrians positioning in thier own back yards? I say fie.

Let the Wilsonian world police schtick finally die.

>Firstly I'm British, not american.

… I'll try to avoid making the perfidious albion joke then, considering the topic about betrayal.

>Secondly, when did the US pledge to support Kurdish independance? Answer: They did not.

There's a world of difference between being hesitant to declare for independence, and letting them get invaded without any warning. The US did not warn the Kurds or Europeans. If I recall correctly, he endangered French and British commandos, so I'm not particularly impressed. What, has the UK gotten to such a point of being an American poodle that they're excusing the endangerment of their own countrymen?

>Not thinking ignorance and arrogance virtues did not make you immune to them, evidently.

This is not a proper English sentence, even if I get the gist of it.

> ISIS hasnt regrouped

So they're back to an insurgency from the caliphate. Wonderful, that must mean they're harmless now ~. Many of them used the cover of the invasion to escape and disperse, do you understand how dangerous those fanatics are?

>America supported the Kurds to fight ISIS and once ISIS was out of the picture the support ended. Frankly so should have the american presence altogether, the desire to remain is the true outrage.

Yet they're still there, a bit that you've ignored:
"People said to me, 'Why are you staying in Syria,'" Trump said Tuesday. "Because I kept the oil, which frankly we should have done in Iraq," he added, to cheers and applause from the audience. The president has previously criticized his predecessors for not profiting off Iraqi oil wells."

(I would lecture some of the users here who try to spin him as a peacekeeper, since that seems to be a common misconception.)

>Russian or Syrians positioning in thier own back yards? I say fie.

Then shut up and mind your own business, because no one asked you to in the process of defending the Americans, legitimizing the actions of the Syrians and the Russians.

Because now you're now echoing both the American staffer who justified the invasion during the First Gulf War and Chamberlain's own government with that comment.

Want to be apathetic? Fine, that doesn't surprise anyone, but I for sure will say that how worthy of contempt that action was.

My main question now is, what does Donald do once he's out of the Oval Office?

The way I see it, there's two possibilities: he either flees to Saudi Arabia (or maybe Brazil), or he gets into a series of legal battles that end with him spending some jail time or going bankrupt yet again, putting a hole in his plan. There's also that "Trump TV" idea, but if he honestly thinks Rupert Murdoch is going to let him barge into his territory he's sorely mistaken.

Talkie Toaster wrote:

My main question now is, what does Donald do once he's out of the Oval Office?

The way I see it, there's two possibilities: he either flees to Saudi Arabia (or maybe Brazil), or he gets into a series of legal battles that end with him spending some jail time or going bankrupt yet again, putting a hole in his plan. There's also that "Trump TV" idea, but if he honestly thinks Rupert Murdoch is going to let him barge into his territory he's sorely mistaken.

Writes a book about how he was censored by the overly-PC Left and makes a new TV network that's even further to the Right of Fox News.

Anyone who even believes the Biden administration would even think about investigating him is mistaken.

Penis Miller wrote:

Writes a book about how he was censored by the overly-PC Left and makes a new TV network that's even further to the Right of Fox News.

Anyone who even believes the Biden administration would even think about investigating him is mistaken.

The Biden administration wouldn't, but the NY state courts probably would.

Penis Miller wrote:

Writes a book about how he was censored by the overly-PC Left and makes a new TV network that's even further to the Right of Fox News.

Anyone who even believes the Biden administration would even think about investigating him is mistaken.

Even if Biden pardons Trump for any federal crime, New York is gonna devour him.

BrentD15 wrote:

You're assuming that McConnell won't cripple a Biden administration for 4 years by refusing to allow appointees by Biden to progress through a Senate confirmation.

I'm assuming he will which is the point I am making.
We are getting a relatively chill 4 years. It means the radical left's pet ideas will not come to pass, and the only realistic movement for Biden would be to work with the Conservative majority to get things passed. The radical left elements will subside because the indirect support they had from the anti-Trump center-left would be gone.

Penis Miller wrote:

Writes a book about how he was censored by the overly-PC Left and makes a new TV network that's even further to the Right of Fox News.

Anyone who even believes the Biden administration would even think about investigating him is mistaken.

Second sentence: Precisely this.
It would be horrible optics.
It would be perpetually contentious, it would be setting horrible precedence. And I don't think it's ever been done in US history.

I don't think Trump's network will be further "right".
I was doing a lot of thinking the last few days and one take away I have from the last 4 years is that the meaning of "right" vs "left" in this country has been, in any realistic way, shattered. We can say right or left, but the moment we stop to really think what that even means today we start to get muddled.
In that light, if he was to create a TV network (why would he though, his biggest support came from alternative media), it would probably be focused less on politics.

Ryumaru Borike wrote:

If that debt thing is true, Trump is no longer 1%. Hell, the other 1% might devour him before New York does.

Why? He gave them a massive tax cut in his 4 years. The economy and stocks were booming. They'll make public comments as to why "Orange Man Bad", to popular and "polite company" appeal. But behind closed doors they'll pat him on the back with a big thank you.
Hell, Jeff Bezos this week sold 2 billion dollars worth of stocks, because he knows that the taxes he'll pay on it in 2020, will be significantly less than what they may be in 2021, or 2022, if Biden's taxes force them to go higher.

Trump is going to be alright. It's going to be business as usual.
He'll probably continue tweeting, criticizing Biden, and Twitter wouldn't ban or suspend him, because deep down they love the optics he brings.

Chewybunny wrote:

Why? He gave them a massive tax cut in his 4 years. The economy and stocks were booming. They'll make public comments as to why "Orange Man Bad", to popular and "polite company" appeal. But behind closed doors they'll pat him on the back with a big thank you.
Hell, Jeff Bezos this week sold 2 billion dollars worth of stocks, because he knows that the taxes he'll pay on it in 2020, will be significantly less than what they may be in 2021, or 2022, if Biden's taxes force them to go higher.

Trump is going to be alright. It's going to be business as usual.
He'll probably continue tweeting, criticizing Biden, and Twitter wouldn't ban or suspend him, because deep down they love the optics he brings.

Whoever Trump owes millions too ain't gonna care, you know as well as I do the 1% will gladly eat their own for more money.

>and Twitter wouldn't ban or suspend him, because deep down they love the optics he brings.

They've been doing everything short of banning him for months now due to his presidency, I actually think they might full on ban him after he's gone.

Ryumaru Borike wrote:

Whoever Trump owes millions too ain't gonna care, you know as well as I do the 1% will gladly eat their own for more money.

>and Twitter wouldn't ban or suspend him, because deep down they love the optics he brings.

They've been doing everything short of banning him for months now due to his presidency, I actually think they might full on ban him after he's gone.

Most likely he owes millions to domestic and foreign banks, that can be litigated in court through bankruptcy laws. Millions are easy write offs for major banks, and the gains they had under his administration would more than offset it. Trump doesn't deal with the 1%. His circles are the top 0.01%. And for that demographic they don't eat their own for more money, the exploit their own for more money.

I remember reading Get Shorty (the book), and it's an excellent read. At some point the mobster makes a real good case as to why he's always threatened, intimidated, beaten up, but never maimed, or permanently broke those that failed to pay him money. Because if they are maimed, if they are broken, they will never pay that money back. It's just bad business.

Similarly, why destroy someone if they owe you money and can't pay? You're only guaranteeing that they will never pay. The smart thing to do is set it up so that they can pay you back.

Chewybunny wrote:

Most likely he owes millions to domestic and foreign banks, that can be litigated in court through bankruptcy laws. Millions are easy write offs for major banks, and the gains they had under his administration would more than offset it. Trump doesn't deal with the 1%. His circles are the top 0.01%. And for that demographic they don't eat their own for more money, the exploit their own for more money.

I remember reading Get Shorty (the book), and it's an excellent read. At some point the mobster makes a real good case as to why he's always threatened, intimidated, beaten up, but never maimed, or permanently broke those that failed to pay him money. Because if they are maimed, if they are broken, they will never pay that money back. It's just bad business.

Similarly, why destroy someone if they owe you money and can't pay? You're only guaranteeing that they will never pay. The smart thing to do is set it up so that they can pay you back.

>Similarly, why destroy someone if they owe you money and can't pay?

To take their assets and get something back instead of nothing. Remember, the 1% get away with everything because they can cover it up, that's way harder to do when you make yourself the most watched and divisive person in the world.

Chewybunny wrote:

Most likely he owes millions to domestic and foreign banks, that can be litigated in court through bankruptcy laws. Millions are easy write offs for major banks, and the gains they had under his administration would more than offset it. Trump doesn't deal with the 1%. His circles are the top 0.01%. And for that demographic they don't eat their own for more money, the exploit their own for more money.

I remember reading Get Shorty (the book), and it's an excellent read. At some point the mobster makes a real good case as to why he's always threatened, intimidated, beaten up, but never maimed, or permanently broke those that failed to pay him money. Because if they are maimed, if they are broken, they will never pay that money back. It's just bad business.

Similarly, why destroy someone if they owe you money and can't pay? You're only guaranteeing that they will never pay. The smart thing to do is set it up so that they can pay you back.

With what is known and what is rumored about Deutsche Bank and Trump this could be a situation of Trump being thrown under the bus as a scapegoat. The reasons could vary from shareholders getting peeved how much money is being thrown down the drain to the conspiratorial "Trump isn't useful to anyone in 2021" with both Trump and Putin out of government.

Ryumaru Borike wrote:

If that debt thing is true, Trump is no longer 1%. Hell, the other 1% might devour him before New York does.

He still knows their secrets
if they tried to prosecute him he could expose all of epstein's friends

Ryumaru Borike wrote:

>Similarly, why destroy someone if they owe you money and can't pay?

To take their assets and get something back instead of nothing. Remember, the 1% get away with everything because they can cover it up, that's way harder to do when you make yourself the most watched and divisive person in the world.

To be clear. the minimum you have to make to be in the 1% is $421,926. Those aren't the kinds of people t hat are in any power or position to take everything. Most loans are done through banks, and banks also cannot just simply seize assets. There are also a lot of bankruptcy avenues. Seizing assets is what a bank can do, only if there is no other avenue to settle a debt.

Last edited Nov 07, 2020 at 03:57PM EST

pinkiespy - goat spy wrote:

With what is known and what is rumored about Deutsche Bank and Trump this could be a situation of Trump being thrown under the bus as a scapegoat. The reasons could vary from shareholders getting peeved how much money is being thrown down the drain to the conspiratorial "Trump isn't useful to anyone in 2021" with both Trump and Putin out of government.

Trump owes 340 Million to Deutche Bank. They have a few options: seek collections to close out the debt (which Trump can put into legislative hell to restructure) or sell the debt off to another bank, taking the loss. Even if, at best, they seek full collection, Trump's total assets vs liabilities is valued at 2.5 Billion. He would have to sell of some of his assets to raise the capital needed to pay off the debt. If they attempt to "Epstein" him as some would suggest, this could become disastrous for them, depending on how Trump's will, trust, or whatever is set up – whomever is the executor would have the power to negotiate any and all loans to be settled. In most cases, debtors take severe, SEVERE hits on what is owed when someone dies. This is because the estate needs to settle all debts – but they can choose which debt to settle first. And if the estate has no more assets, all debts become null and void.

So what this means is this: let's say there are 4 major debts, each totalling 500 million each. But there are only 1 billion in assets. The executor can negotiate with all 4 for a far lesser payment, because the debt holders know that if the executor wanted to, they can pay off only 2 of those debts, leaving the other 2 with no way to collect anything on that debt. Realistically, the debtors are pressured to negotiate for something like, 200 million to settle the debt, because its better to write off 300 million, than 500 million. Negotiations can last a long time, and eventually courts could step in and put extreme pressure on the debtors.

The best way the Biden administration can heal our countries wounds is to give the Republicans everything they want and continue to screw over the urban and rural poor by not supporting policies that continue to win elections like increasing the minimum wage or decriminalizing drugs.

The people that support the policies that continue to win elections are the dreaded radical left and they are radical because they want things that 90% of the countries on Earth have like healthcare systems and working public infrastructure. I recommend giving the police money and not increasing the taxes on parasit- I mean job creators.

I am arguing in good faith.

Last edited Nov 07, 2020 at 10:06PM EST

Penis Miller wrote:

You can't threaten me with a good time.

Trump dying in any capacity is bad for us all. Trump getting assassinated before trial is him becoming a Martyr forever. Any and all crimes he's committed needs to be tried and put on offical record, with publicly accessible evidence, so it becomes undeniable what a shit-stain he is.

Ryumaru Borike wrote:

Trump dying in any capacity is bad for us all. Trump getting assassinated before trial is him becoming a Martyr forever. Any and all crimes he's committed needs to be tried and put on offical record, with publicly accessible evidence, so it becomes undeniable what a shit-stain he is.

but again, the 1% never pay for their crimes
it ain't gonna happen
bush wasn;t charged for iraq
obama wasn't charged for drone striking civvies
clinton wasn't charged with bengazi, or her corruption

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