#NeverTrump

About

#NeverTrump is a political hashtag movement led by American conservatives and various factions within the Republican party to prevent Donald Trump from winning the Republican Party presidential nomination or the American presidency in the 2016 United States Presidential election.

Origin

Trump faced criticism from conservatives and the Republican Party establishment soon after he entered the race in 2015. Early opposition to Trump frequently cited his stances on trade,^[29] abortion,^[30] tax increases,^[30] and government-provided healthcare^[31] as significant departures from the fiscal and social conservatism of the Republican Party.

As the Republican presidential primary developed, the Republican field crowded to at least twelve notable candidates as of Iowa Caucuses^[7], though at times it had at least seventeen candidates.^[32] Analysts have suggested that the large field divided traditional Republican voters in early primary contests, allowing Trump to achieve victory even when polls indicated Republicans' preference for one of the other candidates.^[8] Though Trump had already received substantial criticism from many Republicans prior to 2016,^[22] some Republican commentators and strategists suggested that the field narrow and that Republican voters consolidate around a single, non-Trump candidate to combat Trump's initial victories. Early advocates of this strategy include the editorial board of the National Review, a conservative political magazine, which made it the magazine's editorial policy to oppose Trump's candidacy.^[9]

On February 26th, 2016, the hashtag #NeverTrump began trending worldwide on Twitter, ^[1] primarily in response to Donald Trump's victory in the Nevada primaries and an endorsement from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Spread

From Hashtag to Movement

Following the initial success of the #NeverTrump hashtag, media outlets began using the term as collective moniker for right-of-center Americans staunchly opposed to Trump's nomination. Conservative groups also began adopting the term as a self-identifier. This opposition, dubbed the "#NeverTrump Movement," has received significant news coverage from various media outlets, including the Washington Post,^[4] Fox News,^[33], and the New York Times.^[34]

In early March 2016, the #NeverTrump PAC was created to advocate against Trump's candidacy.^[5] Notable donors to the PAC include Pierre Omidyar, the founder of eBay, who donated $100,000 to the PAC in April.^[6] Also in March, Jonah Goldberg of the National Review published an editorial entitled "The Way Forward for the #NeverTrump Movement."^[10] Other conservative figures began openly questioning whether Trump would be preferable to Clinton. For example, David French of the National Review argued that Clinton was superior to Trump on foreign policy and trade, whereas Trump would only be "probably better" than Clinton on Second Amendment issues.^[23]

On April 29th, 2016, The Hill published a partial list of prominent Republican figures who have purportedly joined the #NeverTrump movement, including the 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, former RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, several former and sitting U.S. House members, as well as various donors, writers, talk show hosts, and strategists, among others.^[19] Others include Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.^[28]

Some Republicans, citing polls indicating Clinton's strong lead against Trump,^[24] have expressed concern that a defeat for Trump could cause substantial losses among Republicans in down-ballot races.^[25] Such concerns prompted some Republicans to suggest the possibility of a third-party "unity" candidate to incentivize disenchanted Republican voters to turn out, potentially limiting such losses.^[26]

#StopTrump versus #NeverTrump

As Trump continued to advance toward the Republican nomination, some media outlets began to draw a distinction between two different branches of conservative opposition to Trump's nomination. While many acknowledged the increasingly likelihood of Trump's nomination, conservative writers and radio hosts like Ben Shapiro of the Daily Wire,^[11] Glenn Beck,^[12] and Mark Levin^[13] insisted that being part of the #NeverTrump movement meant that they would not vote for Trump even if he were the eventual Republican nominee.

In response to criticism that an article entitled "Indiana May Be #NeverTrump's Last Stand"^[15] mischaracterizes the #NeverTrump movement as being solely concerned with the Republican nomination, FiveThirtyEight politics editor Michael Cohen acknowledged on Twitter that "#StopTrump" was probably the more accurate description for efforts to merely deny Trump the Republican nomination. Perhaps acknowledging this nuance, some media outlets have used the phrase "Stop Trump" to refer to efforts to prevent Trump from becoming the Republican nominee, keeping the concept distinct from "#NeverTrump," including Fox News^[16] and the Washington Post.^[17] However, the distinction is not universally practiced or recognized.^[18]

Indiana Primary Reaction

Following the withdrawal of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz from the Republican primary on May 3rd, 2016, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus declared Trump to be the presumptive nominee and encouraged Republicans "to unite and focus on defeating" Fmr. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee.^[2] In response to Trump's victory, numerous prominent Republican politicians, strategists, journalists, authors, organizers, activists, and voters expressed their disapproval by tweeting the hashtag and vowing to never vote for Trump.^[3] In one notable example, a Republican journalist at the right-leaning Washington Free Beacon burned his party registration:

General Election Opposition

Some #NeverTrump members, including RedState editor Erick Erickson, have since called for a third party candidate to avoid down-ballot defeats.^[14] Eliot Cohen, who served in both Bush administrations, agreed.^[27] Sen. Ben Sasse has criticized both parties' nominees with the hashtag "#WeCanDoBetter."^[21] Some of the advocates for a #NeverTrump third party have adopted the hashtag #NeverHillary to express their opposition to both candidates, including Caleb Howe of RedState who argued that "[t]here is no argument you can make against Trump that you can’t make against Hillary."^[36] However, the #NeverHillary tag is also used by Trump supporters to accuse the #NeverTrump movement of assisting Clinton's candidacy by splitting the vote.^[37] Mitt Romney has reportedly met with Republican strategist Bill Kristol to discuss a third-party run.^[41]

Alternatively, some #NeverTrump supporters have openly expressed their support for Hillary Clinton, either explicitly indicating that they will support her for the general election or tweeting out the pro-Clinton hashtags "#ImWithHer." For example, hedge fund founder and Fox Business contributor Jonathan Hoenig wrote that Trump was so antithetical to capitalist principles on issues like taxes and trade that it was better to vote for Clinton.^[20] Hoenig maintains this strategy is necessary avoid lasting confusion among voters who might think that Trump supports capitalism simply for being a businessman and who would blame Hoenig's believed consequences of such policies on capitalism.^[20]

Others have admitted that they could be persuaded to leave the #NeverTrump movement. Conservative author Brad Thor suggested he would support Trump if Trump appointed Cruz to the Supreme Court, which Thor believed wold be "the greatest check put on Donald Trump’s power possible."^[35] Meanwhile, Priebus would not rule out the possibility that the Republican Party may pick someone else as their nominee, though he considered such a possibility "highly unlikely."^[40] Gov. Jindal has also rescinded his opposition but maintained that Trump was "outlandish" and "completely unpredictable."^[42]

The political effects of the #NeverTrump movement on the general election are presently indeterminate. However, following Donald Trump's presumptive attainment of the nomination, the nonpartisan Cook Report shifted its general election forecasts for thirteen states, twelve of which became more likely to vote Democrat, while the at-large Electoral College delegate in Maine shifted from "Likely Democrat" from "Strong Democrat."^[39]

Criticism

Some Republicans have criticized the #NeverTrump movement for failing to unify around the Republican frontrunner and inadvertently aiding Clinton's Democratic candidacy. Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas maintained that any Republicans not supporting Trump should leave the party.^[38] RNC Chariman Reince Priebus has also criticized the opposition, suggesting that there should be consequences for Republicans who do not support Trump (though analysts suggest that the RNC generally lacks the power to punish individual Republicans).^[43]

Search Interest

External References