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Last posted Nov 19, 2024 at 03:16PM EST. Added Jan 01, 2017 at 06:26PM EST
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BrentD15 wrote:

So, Trump ordered a strike that took out the heads of both the Iran Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, who were both in Iraq, after the US Embassy was attacked by Iran-backed protesters.

This isn't like killing bin Ladin or al-Baghdadi.
These are government-linked people. This might get ugly.

Also, anyone else remember Trump tweeting about Obama starting a war with Iran to get re-elected?


Aged like milk

I sincerely wish people had a bit more interest, and understanding of geo-politics, but at the same time, the ignorance is spawning some juicy memes.

There isn't going to be a war with Iran. There is literally no need for one. There would be, at most, a heated conflict that would end up hurting Iran far far more than it would hurt the US. Let's weigh up the situation in the ME:
Most of the Gulf-States are eager as hell to unleash holy (in some cases literally) hell on Iran, with the KSA actually developing major ballistic missiles programs. Interestingly this has led much of the ME to finally, not only recognize, but secretly ally themselves with Israel – which has had animosity towards the Mullah regime (in actually, Israel and the Iranians pre-Ayatollah, enjoyed close relations). Syria is Iran's only realistic ally and it is in no shape whatsoever to get into a situation with US. Russia, although enjoying strategic relationship and some economic ties with Iran, has consistently cast a blind eye to when Israel or US bombs the shit out of Iranian targets in it's own neighborhood (to the chagrin of Syria) and has stayed absolutely silent on the proxy war in Yemen.
Chinese interests in Iran is strictly economic, and it wouldn't dare get itself involved in a conflict that may drag it's relationship with it's largest trading partner down.
Iran has literally no one it can count on for any major military alliance. The EU would most likely stay the fuck out of that. And even if things get heated up to a full out war, it would be disastrous to a country that:
*in 2019 has had 25% increase in inflation.
*months upon months of protests, riots, and civil unrest
*major natural disasters that have only fueled the above
*failure of EU trade agreements to be maintained

The US would need to only cripple the IRGC officer pool to such an extent the army would need to worry if the Mullahs would be able to pay them. Civil wars, and revolutions are ended when the military decides to top-the-ruler. It's why so much of the ME dictatorships have heavy connections with the military, because it's the military and the generals that are the king makers. Has been since the dawn of civilization.

PatrickBateman96 wrote:

Chewybunny wrote:

There is literally no need for one.

There was no need for a war in Iraq either. But I think you and I both know how that turned out.

Iraq wasn't in an economic tailspin, on the verge of civil unrest, with a potential for a full time revolution.

Chewybunny wrote:

Iraq wasn't in an economic tailspin, on the verge of civil unrest, with a potential for a full time revolution.

Really hoping that revolution happens, Iran would be the perfect place for a new French Revolution

Chewybunny wrote:

Iraq wasn't in an economic tailspin, on the verge of civil unrest, with a potential for a full time revolution.

Iran has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world, regardless of the stability of it’s government. If anything a poor economy and civil unrest makes it more likely to be invaded since it won’t be as stable as it has been in the past.

All that oil and yet they still had to hike fuel prices. Seems counter intuitive really. Then again venesuela has issues with an aging and under maintained oil industry, wonder how much of the iranian oil derricks and refineries remain that predate the fall of the shah.

Last edited Jan 05, 2020 at 02:04AM EST

PatrickBateman96 wrote:

Iran has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world, regardless of the stability of it’s government. If anything a poor economy and civil unrest makes it more likely to be invaded since it won’t be as stable as it has been in the past.

What good is it to have all that oil if the only way you can sell it is through the gray market? What good is all those reserves if no one is able to buy it?

In 2019 Iran's GDP shrunk by 9%, it's inflation is 28%, it is experiencing wide spread economic, natural, and social upheaval that has created massive riots, protests and more. The entire reason why things are flaring up is because the hardliners in power and the IRGC needs the political support to stay in power.

No one is going to invade Iran, no one wants to, it's a mountaneous country and would require far more coat and lives than Iraq. The real pressure and the real fear for the Iranian regime is from its own people. It's why I argue there won't be a full on war with Iran. Precision strikes which cripple the IRGC and the regime leadership support is the real extent by which we would conduct military action.

I wrote a small piece about the upcoming primary. i'll copy/paste here too

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
538 just released their democrat primary forecast. Think of it like a weather forecast. "40% chance biden wins" is like the weatherman saying "40% chance of rain". It will change some over time too, so you might want to save it.
The point is to give a rough estimation of where the race is headed.
Biden currently has the highest chance of winning, with Sanders 2nd highest chance.
Iowa votes in less than 25 days and is expected to change the results up the most. It is currently a 3 way tie between Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg winning Iowa. An Iowa win for Biden would practically seal the win for the entire primary to Biden. A Sanders win in iowa would lead to Sanders and Biden having a fairly equal chance of winning the primary. Anyone else winning Iowa will have a more uncertain affect on the race.
Biden and Sanders have both been trending up over the past few weeks, while everyone else (well, technically bloomberg has risen some… from 4% to 5% support in national polls.) has fallen.
Betting markets have also been starting to place more bets on Biden and Sanders https://markets.predictwise.com/markets/ (Biden 34% Sanders 24% Warren 13% (Warren was at 50% a few months ago))
And finally, morning consult tracks the approval (among democrat voters) rating of each candidate https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Sanders actually has the highest net approval (approval minus disapproval), biden right behind, warren a little further back, and everyone else has low name recognition. Bloomberg has the highest disapproval, tied with Gabbard.
Oh, and that morning consult poll also says that 11% of bloomberg supporter's second choice is Sanders… I would love to meet the people who support both bloomberg, a billionaire, and sanders, whose main deal is attacking billionaires. Sanders and bloomerberg are about as opposite as you can get in the democrat field.

So, this was being passed around last night's Trump rally.

As you can see from the bottom of the flyer, it was from the LaRouchePAC, named after Lyndon LaRouche, an aggressively anti-semitic, fascistic former presidential candidate.

Here's the original flyer in PDF format.

Mike Pompeo tells Fox News they had no idea when or where the 'immiment' attacks from Soleimani were going to hit, but to just trust him, seriously.

Last edited Jan 10, 2020 at 05:03PM EST

Except BrentD15 is right.
First off Iran and Russia are at most partners, not allies. There has been times where they didn't see eye to eye at all. Much of Russia's interest in Iran stems from it's greater geo-political and domestic concerns, namely, the 20 million Muslims in Russia which Russia fears may be radicalized. Their alliance extends to mostly Syria – but even that has been tested as Russia seems to turn a blind eye to when the Israelis and the Americans bomb the shit out of Iranian targets in Syria (which Russia is clearly made aware of before the attacks happen).

Furthermore, Russia's economic ties to Iran are weak. Russia supported all 6 UN resolutions on sanctions on Iran. Hardly a single Russian bank in Russia is willing to work with Tehran.

Their partnership is built on anti-Americanism, interest in Syria, interest in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and millions of Muslims in Russian territory. But it's economic, military, and strategic ties are lacking.

Suffice it to say, Russia may raise a big stink about any real American military strikes on Iran, but it wouldn't even consider putting a single Russian soldier on Iranian soil to do anything about it.

And yes, both countries are dependent on high-oil prices for economic stability. Russia would benefit from higher oil prices if shit-went-down in Iran.

No doubt about it.

Chewybunny wrote:

Except BrentD15 is right.
First off Iran and Russia are at most partners, not allies. There has been times where they didn't see eye to eye at all. Much of Russia's interest in Iran stems from it's greater geo-political and domestic concerns, namely, the 20 million Muslims in Russia which Russia fears may be radicalized. Their alliance extends to mostly Syria – but even that has been tested as Russia seems to turn a blind eye to when the Israelis and the Americans bomb the shit out of Iranian targets in Syria (which Russia is clearly made aware of before the attacks happen).

Furthermore, Russia's economic ties to Iran are weak. Russia supported all 6 UN resolutions on sanctions on Iran. Hardly a single Russian bank in Russia is willing to work with Tehran.

Their partnership is built on anti-Americanism, interest in Syria, interest in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and millions of Muslims in Russian territory. But it's economic, military, and strategic ties are lacking.

Suffice it to say, Russia may raise a big stink about any real American military strikes on Iran, but it wouldn't even consider putting a single Russian soldier on Iranian soil to do anything about it.

And yes, both countries are dependent on high-oil prices for economic stability. Russia would benefit from higher oil prices if shit-went-down in Iran.

No doubt about it.

Something we both can easily agree upon.

Speaking of Russia, apparently they hacked the Burisma company in November.

"Russia, if you're listening…"

I feel like sanctions on russia have made it much more unlikely that they'll truly start militarily intervening. If they were in a position to do so, two provinces of Georgia and a Ukranian Peninsula wouldn't be the extent of it's expansion campaign. A lot of russias military is still underpaid and now is dealing with a war in Syria to bolster what is probably a shell-country to sell it's stuff out of and circumvent embargos. It's costing them a lot, which is why so much Russian activity is now focused on Cyber propoganda. Invading a country takes money and blood, as well as physical resources. Starting a facebook group and tweeting fake information costs next to nothing and has Amazing returns for the investment made.

Black Graphic T wrote:

I feel like sanctions on russia have made it much more unlikely that they'll truly start militarily intervening. If they were in a position to do so, two provinces of Georgia and a Ukranian Peninsula wouldn't be the extent of it's expansion campaign. A lot of russias military is still underpaid and now is dealing with a war in Syria to bolster what is probably a shell-country to sell it's stuff out of and circumvent embargos. It's costing them a lot, which is why so much Russian activity is now focused on Cyber propoganda. Invading a country takes money and blood, as well as physical resources. Starting a facebook group and tweeting fake information costs next to nothing and has Amazing returns for the investment made.

The reality is Russia knows all too well it's position in the world.
It's got the third most powerful military…with the 12th largest economy. It's geo political and domestic position is also quite fragile. You're right to also point out the propaganda arm of the Russian government. In fact, it's misinformation abilities are top-notch, probably the best in the world. And for good reason, the USSR survived as long as it did on propaganda and intimidation.

But the reality is, Russia's biggest enemy, in my opinion…is it's own history.

Russia's achilles heel has always been a sense of inferiority borne out of being a vast, powerful, but technologically, culturally, and socially backward to the Western Europeans that they bordered. Virtually every major Monarch of the Empire was educated in Western Europe and tried it's best to modernize the Russian people. Often times with blood and steel. But it is also that inferiority that drives much of the Russian thinking and desires; it's obsessed with respect and image. The USSR, for what's it's worth, gave the Russians a sense of superiority.

But here's a little secret.
Do you know why Russia and Putin are feared, but at the same time so admired by many? Because the reality is this. If you openly criticize America, nothing will happen. Literally nothing. If you criticize Russia, it considers it "provocation". No one criticizes Russia, no one dares to, because unlike America which would just, shrug it's shoulders (anthropomorphize here), the Russians will view it as a legitimate insult and a call for action. Internally, Russia would hardly tolerate the kind of dissidence that is common place in the US. Can you even imagine how the Russians would treat an anti-Putin protest akin to an American anti-Trump one?

Reality is though, Russia would do well to actually cooperate and work with the west, than to hold on to this centuries old notion of trying to do the West one better. Because it's engaging in a ton of political maneuvers that, on the surface may seem like they are beneficial, are actually long term problematic…i.e. it's economic partnership with China is becoming much like how the partnership between Lando Calrissian and Darth Vader were.

China is a glutton. Where Russia has a sense of inferiority, china had a sense of entitlement. Some of it deserved, western meddling was a major stain whose effects were widespread. Others however come from the idea that china being one of the oldest civilizations, deserves to be in charge. That because they were one of the first, they shouldn't just be respected, or admired, but worshipped for things the current china did not and could not do.

BrentD15 wrote:

Mike Pompeo was also aware of the scheme.

The Secretary of State was aware of the scheme to force Yovanovitch out of Ukraine!

Attorney General William Barr was also implicated by Parnas.

Guess who also implicated Barr?

Lev Parnas' interviews the past couple of days have resulted in him throwing Trump, Barr, Pompeo, Pence (and his brother Ed), Toensing, DiGenova, Giuliani, and Lutsenko under the bus.

But not Firtash.
Bratva is watching.

McConnell reveals the proposed rules for the Senate trial of Donald J. Trump, and it is a travesty.

Only 24 hours over 2 days to present a case, might not even include evidence that the 2 Articles are based on, and how does Mitch think he could get away with this?

BrentD15 wrote:

McConnell reveals the proposed rules for the Senate trial of Donald J. Trump, and it is a travesty.

Only 24 hours over 2 days to present a case, might not even include evidence that the 2 Articles are based on, and how does Mitch think he could get away with this?

This is actually a good thing. If the trial were longer the GOP would have more time so they could essentially put Joe Biden on trial and insist the whole thing is a democratic witch hunt. Plus when Trump gets acquitted his approval ratings are likely to go up(like they did with Bill Clinton) but they probably won't stay up considering how far we are from election day.

Black Graphic T wrote:

All the more reason to vote for Bernie Sanders.

Really, you're voting for a socialist who wants to give everyone free healthcare and free education?
Whos gonna pay for it, Josef Stalin?

Tnytonyhopper wrote:

Really, you're voting for a socialist who wants to give everyone free healthcare and free education?
Whos gonna pay for it, Josef Stalin?

american citizens

Tnytonyhopper wrote:

Really, you're voting for a socialist who wants to give everyone free healthcare and free education?
Whos gonna pay for it, Josef Stalin?

If trump can get mexicans to pay for a wall, sanders can get the ghosts of communism to foot the bill.

thebigguy123 wrote:

According to the Doomsday Clock, as a species we are even closer to oblivion than during the Cold War.

I'm scared as shit right now.

It's worth noting that the guys running it didn't change the time when the Cuban Missle Crisis happened so I don't know if I trust their judgement.

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