Bit o' Geo Politics!
Myanmar.
Man this is becoming a bigger deal – and while we, today, may not yet feel the sting of what's happening on our streets, it's something that I think is going to manifest itself far larger down the line. It reminds me greatly of the cold-war era between USSR and the US where actual geo-political conflict between two nations often was dealt with in proxies, and what may seem like contradictory positions held by both nations were entirely a practical counter-measure against one another.
So a bit of a background from my diggings. The military has held power in Myanmar for decades until 2015 when Myanmar experienced it's first free-elections, and elected Aung San Suu Kyi (I'll refer to her as ASSK) and her party the National League for Democracy (NLD) as President. Under the NLD Myanmar experienced increased prosperity, a slow shift towards Western trade and diplomacy, which saw outstanding debt with China decreased by 26%. Also, trade with Western countries increased and the trade deficit with China shrank.
However, like Egypt, most of the economic sectors of Myanmar remained in the hands of the miltiary, under a conglomerate Myanmar Economic Holdings PLC , a conglomerate set up by the military in 1990 that has major joint projects with Chinese corporations. Traditionally the military has held negative views of Chinese economic interference which actually prompted the initial elections, however recent most increased ties between Myanmar and China may have been changed that perspective.
In 2017, the Rohingya genocide occurred – although not called a genocide due to the impact of such a designation in international relations – ASSK (who won noble peace prizes mind you) did not condemn the military. This was viewed with contempt internationally, but domestically it was a popular move. ASSK's administration has had to deal with competing power internally from the military, specifically with General Min Aung Hliang (MAH), who owns massive shares of the MEH PLC. As some international relations deteriorated there was increase relations with China.
In November, Myanmar held it's elections – with ASSK's NLD party winning in a total landslide against the military backed party. It seems that the military has continual breakdown of relations with the NLD who sought to curb the military power with attempts at constitutional reform. "With Min Aung Hlaing set to retire when he turns 65 in June, experts say he had his sights set on the presidency. To do that, the military's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) would need do well in the November elections. But Suu Kyi's NLD won 83% of the vote, giving her a mandate and signaling a strong rejection of the military -- putting those presidential ambitions out of reach."
China has a lot invested in Myanmar. Maynmar is a crucial part of China's Belt and Road initiative, giving China access to the Indian ocean. In the exchange, China has invested heavily in Myanmar's infrastructure. China blocked UN's condemnation of the coup, although not happy with the coup as it has fostered relationship with ASSR, it continues to seek good will and bring Maynmar closer to it's fold.
In the US this has caused a problem for President Biden's administration. Besides being extremely early in the administration, one person described the situation as "chaos", as many positions in the State Department have yet to be filled. So far the administration has not called it a coup due to such a term invoking specific laws that prevent US assistance. Furthermore, any antagonism from the West, such as sanctions would ultimately push Myanmar further into the orbit of China. At this crucial point where the current military junta, historically wary of Chinese influence? We are back to the old cold-war tactic of the US having to support illiberal governments for realpolitik i.e. supporting dictatorships to counter similar endeavors from a geopolitical rival.
This would ultimately strain President Biden's goals of strengthening Democracy in a world where authoritarianism has been steadily growing.
Meanwhile, protests across Myanmar have broken out, with multiple days of people going into the streets. In response military leaders order curfew and ban gatherings on top of already blocking social media groups where anti-coup protesters organize.
Seems it's back to the 20th century for us.